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Masters in Business

At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm

Masters in Business

Bloomberg

Business, Investing

4.42.2K Ratings

🗓️ 31 January 2024

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Investors don't like recessions. But how can they tell if one's coming? There's an indicator for that. It's called the "Sahm Rule," named for economist Claudia Sahm. Sahm is a former Federal Reserve economist best known for the rule bearing her name. In this episode, she speaks with Barry Ritholtz about using labor data to forecast recessions.

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Transcript

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to synthesize a number of different perspectives so they can understand how the greater

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whole works because nothing really occurs in isolation anymore.

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0:48.6

Investors don't love recessions. Bad things happen when the economy contracts. Top-line corporate growth

0:55.7

stops, revenue and earnings fall, that sends stock prices lower. Ever since the pandemic ended, lots of investors fearing a

1:06.2

recession was imminent have gotten scared out of equity markets that any day

1:11.8

now recession still hasn't shown up.

1:15.0

This is despite the prediction of many well-known economists over the past two years.

1:21.0

There still has been no recession. As it turns out, there are ways

1:25.7

investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. I'm Barry Ritoltz and on today's edition of At the Money, we're going to discuss how to accurately

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