Arete Coach Podcast 1083 Severin Sorensen "Surviving Economic Tsunamis"

Arete Coach: The Art & Science of Executive Coaching

Arete Coach Podcast

Business, How To, Entrepreneurship, Education, Management

5 • 1.2K Ratings

🗓️ 18 July 2022

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This is episode 1083 of the Arete Coach Podcast with host Severin Sorensen with a special episode Surviving Economic Tsunamis: Scenario analysis, strategic planning, and risk mitigation.

In this episode, we explore a world in commotion. We cross walk through current international political economy trends, the global economy, US economy, the war in Ukraine, and a portent of stormy weather ahead. Some have described our period as pre-hurricane and we explore what if it were an economic Tsunami; How would one prepare? We review economic preparations by leading economists, CEOs, and the work of surviving and thriving in turbulent times by Sequoia Capital and Bain & Company.

Discussed are topics of inflation, Federal Reserve Bank policy, economic impacts of War, and inflation impacts on global nation-state instability. We explore the leadership and cultural themes needed now. The podcast is helpful for business owners, CEOs, key executives, executive coaches and executive peer groups.

Severin Sorensen is an economist, executive coach, and serial entrepreneur with a keen curiosity for business and economic trends. Severin is CEO of ePraxis LLC, a premier-level executive headhunting, talent selection, and executive coaching company. Severin is a highly sought Vistage Speaker with over 250+ presentations worldwide on hiring top talent, innovation, and economic trends. Severin was a Vistage Chair (2010-2018) of three Vistage Groups in Salt Lake City, UT, and during this period he was a repeat Mentor Chair and awarded the 2011 Vistage Rookie Chair of the Year Award. Prior to Chairing, Severin was a Vistage/TEC member in Washington DC (1999-2004) while he owned and operated a company he founded called Sparta Consulting Corporation (1994-2005), a management consulting, security systems integration, and remote video monitoring company; Severin sold this company in 2005 and it continues today as part of Interface Security Systems, the 7th largest security systems integrator in the US (2018). Severin was a former “Special Assistant to the President” at the White House where he had the high honor to work for President George H.W. Bush (POTUS 41) (1992-93). Severin earned a graduate degree (M.Phil.) in economics from King’s College, Cambridge, University, England, and two undergraduate degrees in economics and political science from the University of Utah. While an undergraduate, Severin was the Editor in Chief of the Utah Forum: A journal on international political economy. Severin is the author of Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009), a book that chronicles the Great Depression (1929-42) and the situation leading up to the Great Recession (2007-2009). Today, Severin prepares a quarterly economic overview for business coaches and business owner/operators on the economy, identifying key behavioral economic trends that impact businesses and their opportunity frontiers.

More on the topic is available at AreteCoach.io.

The Arete Coach Podcast seeks to explore the art and science of executive coaching. You can find out more about this podcast at aretecoach.io.

This episode was produced on April 10, 2022.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is the RT Coach podcast with Severin Sorcen with an episode that explores surviving and
0:05.8	economic tsunami. This session was recorded on July 17, 2022 via Zoom video.
0:13.2	You are listening to Severin Sorcen, executive coaching curator of the RT Coach podcast,
0:18.5	where we explore excellence in the art and science of executive coaching.
0:23.1	In this episode, we explore surviving and economic tsunami with scenario analysis,
0:28.6	strategic planning, and risk mitigation. Our world is in commotion.
0:34.4	The New York Times recently pulled economists from various schools, banks, and financial interests
0:39.7	to gauge their current perception of recession risk. You can see this article on June 28,
0:47.4	called Recession Probability. In the article, they relate different points of view
0:53.8	and models that are looking at Recession Probability. We see the lowest risk from low risk to 15%
1:02.8	of a recession. On moderate side, you see Morgan Stanley at 30% probability of a recession,
1:11.4	and JPMorgan Chase at 35% of a recession, then Bank of America at 40% and S&P Global Rankings at 40%
1:21.3	of a recession, then straddling 50% of all nine Goldman Sachs at 50% and City Group at 50%.
1:29.6	Now, Goldman Sachs, it's 50% of a recession over a two-year period, but this upcoming period is
1:35.6	lowered that's in the 30s, in terms of the next to 12 months. And then far to the right is Deutsche
1:42.0	Bank and Wells Fargo that each broadcast greater than 50% probability of recession at this time.
1:48.6	So let's go ahead and explore what it is that we're seeing. What's interesting to me for those
1:53.6	who are experiencing or saying that they're seeing greater risk to recession, they aren't more
1:59.2	exposed. For example, Deutsche Bank is a German bank and being in close proximity to the war
2:06.0	in Ukraine, also experiencing an economy that has been hit hardest by rising fuel costs, gas,
2:14.8	and other things such as constraints on fuel lines. On Friday, July 15th, 2022,
2:22.2	Wells Fargo reported their second quarter of profit to clients on 48% from the year earlier,
	...

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