Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.6 • 20.6K Ratings

🗓️ 15 August 2022

⏱️ 50 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Testing one two testing one two three four
0:03.4	Five
0:04.6	What did you eat for breakfast? I haven't eaten anything all day. Are you serious? Yeah, you arrived to the podcast at 135?
0:11.2	Hungary
0:13.0	Yeah, I don't know man. I don't know. I should have eaten something shouldn't I I
0:16.6	Food lately. I have some almonds. Do you want some almonds?
0:20.3	No, I'm good. You sure yeah, I mean no complaining about like being hungry when the podcast
0:25.1	I'm have I complained about being hungry. There you go. Okay. God bless
0:39.7	Hello, and welcome to the 538 politics podcast. I'm Galen Druke. I'm Nathaniel Silver and this is model talk
0:50.1	It's still so nice to do that in person after all these years. Yeah
0:53.8	Uh, so it's model talk neat. How are you feeling about the model?
0:58.2	That's a good model. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think
1:01.2	My opinion of how good the model changes that much from week to week. No, not at all. I really
1:06.0	You don't have like a temperamental relationship at all. I'm kind of chill about the model this point man
1:10.9	I know well. We've this as well established a model talk. Yeah, the model's still in Miami
1:16.6	It I mean in August it actually
1:19.7	Went north for the dick. Where does the model decamped the amtens?
1:22.7	The amtens? Yes
1:25.3	Okay, I don't share the person I don't person like the amtens that much but the model is the model the model is in the amtens
1:30.8	Why wouldn't the model go join 5e in Vermont?
1:33.9	Um the model and 5e don't really get along at all like they're they're very different
1:39.0	They're different personality types. Yeah. How did that happen? I mean, I don't know how 5e was chosen to represent the model
	...

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