Analysis of the April Jobs Report
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 2 May 2025
⏱️ 45 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data.
2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers.
3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week.
4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise.
5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up.
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Transcript
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| 0:56.6 | youtube joining us now and again the future's lifting up 20 up 42 is someone who's been much |
| 1:03.1 | maligned and has been fearless in her academics of saying you know what i'm associated with the dreaded |
| 1:08.9 | our word recession but i don't see it out there. |
| 1:11.9 | Claudia Somm has nailed that call. She's chief economist at New Century's Advisors, and she joins us here this morning. |
| 1:19.7 | Claudia, my distant memory is Jeffrey Frankel at Harvard saying, okay, there's a jobs mandate, there's an interest rate inflation mandate, |
| 1:31.5 | but real GDP and maybe distant nominal GDP really matter. |
| 1:37.2 | Can a dearth of GDP shift the labor market and shift the Fed? |
| 1:45.0 | Well, absolutely. I mean, these are all growth and employment are absolutely tied together, |
| 1:50.8 | not necessarily quarter by quarter. And I think, you know, if you're referring to the first |
| 1:55.7 | quarter, the small decline in GDP, like there is a lesson from that, but it is not that we are |
| 2:00.5 | falling into a recession. It not that we are falling into a |
| 2:01.2 | recession. It's that we are facing a major cost shock with an increase in tariffs. And businesses |
| 2:06.5 | were responding to that in consumers that caused a lot of disruption in the numbers. So that's |
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