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Hello and welcome to the Americano podcast. This is an election year. Will Donald Trump be

re-elected? What is going on with the Democrats? And has America gone even more crazy? We'll be

discussing all of these things and more, more than once a week, because we don't feel you have enough

Americano in your life. I'm joined today by Marcus Roberts, who is head of international projects

at YouGov, the pollster. And Marcus, you have released today your MRP, which is your final poll, really, or the summary of your polls,

to say what you think is going to happen in the election tomorrow night.

Don't tell us what MRP stands for.

It's far too complicated.

Actually do, because it's quite funny.

Oh, the multi-level regression and post-stratification model that Fair rolls off the tongue.

Yes, and I'm not even going to ask you to begin to explain what that means.

But if you could possibly give us a summary of where you think the race lies as we are talking right now.

Okay, I will give you a small explanation, which is that MRP is a model of polls, data and analytics,

including everything from the latest census returns, through to demographic and socioeconomic data,

through to a bucket ton of battleground state and national poll information,

all mixed up together to give a projection of what we believe

the result is at a granular level. And this is the same modeling technique that was used with great

efficacy in UK general elections lately that indicated early on that Hillary Clinton was in

...