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Cato Podcast

A Pandemic Recession Is Different

Cato Podcast

Cato Institute

Immigration, News, News Commentary, Peace, 424708, Markets, Government, Libertarian, Policy, Politics, Cato, Defense

4.5979 Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2020

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Understanding the nature of recessions caused by pandemics is critical to crafting a policy response. Ryan Bourne explains.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Wednesday, March 25th, 2020. I'm Caleb Brown.

0:05.8

Relatively little of the public discussion surrounding the novel coronavirus centers on the kinds

0:10.9

of protective measures that would both contain the virus and

0:14.6

allow businesses and employers to begin slowly ramping back up.

0:19.2

Instead, Congress appears poised to prolong many of the economic problems that a dangerous

0:24.1

pandemic brings with it. Cato's Ryan Bourne says that's a problem if the US

0:28.9

wants to get out of recession sooner than later. Well I think the most important thing to think about in regard this virus is why it's so different economically to an ordinary recession and why therefore it requires a different policy response to the extent it requires a policy response than an ordinary recession.

0:47.0

With an ordinary recession, GDP will decline a lot range of firms going bankrupt, usually the firms that were kind of

1:01.0

of weakest and in that rebound there would be a reallocation of

1:05.0

capital, reallocation of resources to new firms, and over time, you know, the unemployment rate, although it spiked falls, and we returned back to a degree of normality.

1:18.0

A pandemic is a fundamentally different economic phenomenon.

1:22.0

It's different in the sense that in the

1:24.2

in the sense that in the short term we almost want GDP to decline

1:27.8

because that's evidence that we're engaging in the social

1:31.7

distancing and not interacting as much in order to curb the spread of the virus.

1:39.6

And it's different in the sense that because no business or most businesses couldn't have foreseen such a

1:47.0

occurrence it's hurting both the viable and non-viable businesses, weak and strong businesses in certain sectors entirely.

1:58.0

The virus doesn't care what your balance sheet looked like prior to coming along it's kind of sweeping through the

2:05.6

economy and as a result of the virus itself changing behavior and leading to

2:09.4

different policies being imposed demand for certain activities is completely

2:15.0

cratering. So what Congress I think should be doing is thinking through from

2:22.2

where we are now, how do we solve the fundamental public health problem in the longer term,

...

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