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A New Election Forecasting Model for 2020

Slate News

Slate Podcasts

Politics, News, News Commentary

4.56K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2020

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Virginia Heffernan talks to political analyst Rachel Bitecofer about her new electoral theory sweeping the forecasting world, the outlook for 2020, swing voters, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

President Trump likes to talk about the forgotten man and woman.

0:04.0

Well, in this budget, he's forgotten about the very people he promised to help in his state of the union last week.

0:13.5

Budget's supposed to be a statement of our values.

0:16.0

Once again, this president is demonstrating how little he values the good health, the financial security, and well being a hard-working American family.

0:26.0

Let me say tonight that this victory here is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.

0:38.0

Hello and welcome to Trumpcast. I'm Virginia Heffernin.

0:41.0

So Roger Stone, that daffy, filthy trickster and long-time chief of the tortures lobby, who's not anywhere near as amusing as he thinks he is,

0:49.0

was facing sentencing for obstructing Congress and witness tampering.

0:53.0

It was bad. He's the last convict in the Russia investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.

0:59.0

Stone's forever drug buddy, you may remember, is the one with whom he cooked up no end of murderous drug deals.

1:04.0

That was Paul Manafort. Manafort is of course in prison, and it was the fondest hope of all Americans who love justice that Stone would land squarely in the clink too for a long time.

1:17.0

But true to the Trump administration's one clear policy objective, the obstruction of justice, wherever justice might rear its head, Bill Barr in main justice jumped on the Senate's and guidelines of seven to nine years, those guidelines given by other federal prosecutors, and has taken the, what do they call it, the unusual step, the dickhead step of smacking down those prosecutors to say the well, 20 years can be okay for someone doing bong hits, seven to nine years for an enemy of the country.

1:45.0

Who hooked up something with wiki leaks is far too much. Poor Stone.

1:52.0

Barr is of course the grandmaster of the in cell video game world of obstruction craft, who has been playing for one million hours straight and is goggalied from how much obstruction he's racked up.

2:03.0

Barr entered the leaderboard by first garbling and blocking the Mueller report itself, which he lied about so absurdly that even Mueller said he'd misrepresented the work.

2:13.0

Still, Barr was on obstruction tilt and framed the report to Trumpites as somehow exonerating it was not exonerating and went back to flacking for Trump every day and making more room for Trump's crime and colluding.

2:26.0

So now naturally he's stepping in to make sure poor Roger Stone, Trump's long time buddy, Stone of the Tortures lobby, Stone of Stone Manifort, that black hat bad actor face in the dictionary next to the words bad actor, bad actor, Roger Stone, he gets shown some leniency because well, Stone is a truly horrible criminal and Barr lives to roll out the red carpet to all the truly horrible criminals as long as their Trump cultists like he is.

2:54.0

Seeing Barr bigfoot in for Stone today, by the way, made me feel some sick grief that's different from work today, Trump time sorrows, and I thought of Edward Gray, the English Foreign Minister, see I'm trying to dignify what I felt here.

3:07.0

I thought of Gray seeming to give up when reason and diplomacy didn't work with the Russians are and the German Kaiser and all the bloodthirsty people who were just intent on doing the most wrong, most devastating, most absurd and most ill intention thing that is starting

3:22.0

World War One. Gray tried hard, but right on the eve of the UK's entrance into the war, he said the lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.

3:34.0

And if Stone gets a slap on the wrist because of Barr's interference and has desired to put one more far right, Creighton above the law, man at least five more lights are going to go out in this formerly great nation.

3:48.0

Okay, my guest today is going to think all this sad talk is unproductive because for her, the intent is to beat Trump and sad talk doesn't beat anyone.

...

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