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This is Lindsay Smith Rogers.

Today, projections of excess deaths in Gaza.

Paul Spiegel is the director of the Center for Humanitarian Health

at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Tach Igusa is a professor of civil and

systems engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering. Working with colleagues at

Johns Hopkins and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Health, they developed a way

to estimate the human costs of conflict in Gaza. They explained this work to Dr. Josh Sharfstein.

Let's listen. Dr. Paul Spiegel, Professor Tak Agusa, thank you so much for joining me today on

Public Health on Call. I want to start with you, Dr for joining me today on public health on call.

I want to start with you, Dr. Spiegel.

Can you explain what this project set out to do?

Thank you, Josh.

The project, we worked very closely with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,

and the aim was to establish the number of excess death in the future over the next six months within Gaza. And we did that by trying to look at three different scenarios,

which would be over all the extremes. So one would be a ceasefire immediately as of February 7th for the next six months.

The other would be the status quo. What would happen if, even though there are lots of ups and downs,

what would happen if the current situation continued? And then finally, an escalation,

what would happen if it got a lot worse?

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