Russian Aggression, NATO Tensions, and the Specter of 1914. Gaius and Germanicus, hosting the Friends of History Debating Society in Londinium, discuss the future of the Roman Empire's inheritor, the United States, and its empire in the 21st century. The conversation, held by the turbulent Thames, focuses on the extreme challenges facing US institutions, both outside and inside its borders. The primary external challenge discussed is Russian aggression against Ukraine and the heightened tensions along the NATO frontier. Gaius is reliably told that any provocation, such as blockading the Russian shadow fleet or shooting down a Russian warplane, could lead to Mr. Putin's removal by his right-wing compatriots who believe he has supervised a bad war. Germanicus notes that while no one plans provocations, accidents happen, and hotheads exist in NATO alongside appeasers. Putin is seen as driven by his right-wing elements, demanding recognition and respect for Russia, with conditions comparing the situation to 1914, not 1939. Germanicus counters that Putin is a "Kaiser" (Caesar), comparable to the emperor in Washington, D.C., and must secure a "big victory." Putin's attack on the Ukrainian electrical grid is viewed as smart, bringing Ukraine to the brink without destroying the whole grid, thereby deterring Western media backlash and demonstrating Russia's capacity against NATO. Gaius observes that Washington (specifically the neocons) thinks it must win. The comparison to 1914 suggests that a quick collapse of the Ukrainian war effort could spark a dangerous "July crisis" if the West loses its head. Germanicus, however, sees domestic US political turmoil and European weakness making a major war "almost impossible," suggesting Democrats might prefer Russia to win to politically damage Mr. Trump.
1923 PETROGRAD