60 Harvests and statistically savvy parrots
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2020
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
A listener asks if there can really only be 60 harvests left in Earth's soil. Are we heading for an agricultural Armageddon? Plus we meet the parrots who are the first animals, outside humans and great apes, to be shown to understand probability.
(image: Kea parrots in New Zealand)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service, the show that looks at the |
| 0:04.8 | numbers in the news and all around us. I'm Tim Halford. Coming up, there are some |
| 0:09.8 | statistically savvy parrots we'd like you to meet. But first, a statistic about global |
| 0:16.2 | impending agricultural doom was brought up in a recent episode of The Boring Talks on BBC Sounds. |
| 0:24.0 | The UN has warned that soils around the world are heading for depletion. |
| 0:28.4 | With an estimated 60 harvests left, before they're too exhausted to feed the planet. |
| 0:34.4 | Loyal listeners, Neil, Elizabeth and Cookie the Cat, wrote to more or less at BBC.co.uk to ask |
| 0:42.0 | whether they should add it to their long list of worries at the moment. |
| 0:45.7 | This seems like it should be the biggest issue on our radar, but we are having trouble |
| 0:49.7 | keeping on top of world-ending scenarios. Is it true to help us understand where this idea |
| 0:55.4 | that we only have 60 harvests left in our soil comes from? We turn to botanist and broadcaster James |
| 1:02.9 | Wong. I'm fascinated by this claim, so I've heard 60, I've also heard 30 and I've also heard |
| 1:09.6 | 100. So I was really fascinated to see where that came from as a botanist, not a soil scientist. |
| 1:15.6 | So what I decided to do is contact lots of soil scientists from all over the world. |
| 1:21.4 | What I was really curious to figure out is how do you even go about making such a calculation? |
| 1:26.6 | Because it was very enormously depending on the type of soil in the world, |
| 1:31.1 | even the type of soil in a particular county. On top of that you have growing conditions and |
| 1:35.7 | climate and crops, and when it turns out is when I spoke to them, they're used words like |
| 1:40.8 | hardly useful. My personal favourite, almost insulting. So the one very persuaded I think is what |
| 1:47.6 | we're saying. Well in most situations they hadn't actually heard of the Statoidol. |
| 1:51.1 | So I wanted to do digging, and what you find is on the internet, people tend to repeat other |
| 1:56.7 | people's quotations for Statoidol. And very often it may be like three or four repetitions down |
... |
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