Welcome to the Knowledge Project. I'm your host Shane Parish, editor and chief curator

of the Farnham Street blog, a website with over 70,000 readers dedicated to mastering

the best of what other people have already figured out. The Knowledge Project allows me

to interview amazing people from around the world to deconstruct why they're good at what

they do. It's more conversation than prescription.

On this episode, I'm happy to have Philip Tetloff, professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

He's the co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, which is a multi-year forecasting study.

And he's also the author of the recently released Super Forecasting, the Art and Science

of Prediction. How we can get better at prediction is the subject of this interview. We're going

to dive into what makes some people better and what we can learn to improve our ability

to guess the future. I hope you enjoy the conversation as much as I did.

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Okay, so I guess we'll get started. I want to talk about your new book, Super Forecasting,

the Art and Science of Prediction that you wrote with Dan Gardner, who like me, I think

is still based in Ottawa. In the book, you say that we're all forecasters. Can you elaborate

on that a little?

Well, it's hard to make any decision in life, whether it's a consumer decision about whether

to buy a car or a house or whether to marry a particular spouse, potential spouse or a

candidate to vote for an election. It's very hard to make any decision without forming

...