6/17/24: Biden "wandering" video backfires, Trump dementia goes mainstream
The David Pakman Show
David Pakman
4.8 • 6.2K Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2024
⏱️ 64 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome everybody hope you had a good weekend a good father's day to those who celebrated. |
| 0:13.6 | We have a major change to the top 2024 election forecast. |
| 0:19.7 | It's the 538 election forecast and we're going to look at it in a moment. |
| 0:23.8 | And while the change we have is major, we also are very quickly going to learn that you |
| 0:29.7 | and I are not going to be doing this every single day from now until November because the |
| 0:33.4 | changes while monumental also are of very limited predictive value. |
| 0:38.4 | So the news is that after last week 538 launched their first 2024 presidential projection forecast for this election |
| 0:47.0 | and it had Joe Biden winning by something like a 52 to 48, you know, out of 100 simulations, Biden wins 52. |
| 0:56.4 | We now have a reversal in which, as of last night, it was Trump 51 Biden 49, and it is now Trump 50 Biden 49. |
| 1:08.4 | Now before we go further, you might say, hold on that doesn't add up to a hundred. |
| 1:12.1 | Does that mean that there might be some third party |
| 1:15.2 | winner? Does a third party candidate have a shot at getting to 270 electoral votes? |
| 1:20.0 | And the answer is, of course, no, there is a roughly one in 100 chance it's actually |
| 1:24.9 | they say it's less than one in 100 that nobody gets to 270 there are a couple |
| 1:31.4 | of scenarios you can look at that are 269 to 269. It's not very likely all four of those scenarios together represent less than 1% of the totality of possible |
| 1:44.0 | outcome. So what are the takeaways here? The main takeaway, the primary takeaway is |
| 1:50.0 | David, we're going to pat you on the back buddy and give you an attaboy. |
| 1:55.0 | You've been saying, I'm now doing third person. |
| 1:58.0 | I've been saying for months, this is going to be very close, no matter what you think about Latino voters in Florida. |
| 2:06.3 | No matter what you think about anti-Biden Democrats in Michigan, where as we know there were famously |
| 2:11.0 | massive dumps in 2020. |
| 2:13.6 | No matter what you think about any particular indicator |
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