I'm E and a hearted join in me as always the one the only the man that I've now met in real life

between a rock Mac Farlin. We're back to Texas Ohio but over the weekend can't get time my friend. Yeah, we had an awesome time. I apologize for the voice, but we did crush some karaoke the last night. Neither Ian nor I got up and you know took the stage, but we definitely you know, cheer folks along and you know, we sang along at times. It was an electric evening and lovely. Can't no, I'll do it. Over the last 24 hours. I guess now that record it's a little bit longer, but I had a 20.

I had a 24 hour stretch for Sunday to Monday where at one point I was in Ken Cleveland Columbus and Cincinnati at one point in time and I got back and I was like, man, you know, I'm feeling good. Still great day to be great. I got had energy. I wasn't worried. I got back to my apartment this morning. I went to go make coffee and I have a pot of coffee every morning. And I get set up. I got to just no problem. I go into the bathroom. I come back out. Small issue, Dwayne. I didn't put the kettle where it was supposed to go. So I just made an entire

pot of coffee. I just spewed all over my kitchen and I was like, you know what, man, maybe maybe I don't have my shit altogether at this moment of time, but that's okay because you do join your lovely how to win drafts with the water, see where water, see where water, see where start article is on pff.com. We've already done the running back version of this. And as we say it every time. Come on, everyone sing along every season is different. Every draft is dynamic living organism. When we've done three football guys drafts, now we do a fourth tonight.

This is not this podcast goal is not to tell you that starting water, see where water, see where water, see where is the optimal strategy what you should do. But Dwayne, it's something you can do if the board falls your way.

Right. And we just want to be ready, right? When the board does fall certain way so that whenever we're then moving through the rest of the draft, we've already really kind of thought through really what that might look like, right? And then that helps us plan multiple steps ahead of our competitors.

Let's us know when we might want to pull the trigger a little early on a receiver, you know, know which receivers may slide, you know, in the draft and we just need to know where those value pockets are. So yeah, it's it's similar to what we talked about with running back running back running back, right?

You don't have to do that. But if the right guys fall a certain way, you know, and on receiver, if all the sudden like all the running backs you wanted are gone, you know, but these elite receivers are sitting there. I mean, it's going to be hard to pass them. So you just got to know how to handle it.

The other thing I would say with wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver overall, many of folks that are listening, you know, they, you know, you understand, you know, zero, RB theory and all those things. But at the end of the day, like this in the most simplistic form, right?

When we look at wide receivers, especially in PPR formats, we talked about how standard and half PPR, like it really starts to wait more to the backs. The backs, the top three finishes still belong to the backs, even in PPR.

But if you start to take a zoom out kind of approach, right? You look at receivers inside, you know, the top 50 finishers and PPR 55% of them are receivers, only 35% of them are running backs. So while you're not getting the top, the top end super heavy top three finishes typically unless you're freaking could per cup.

Then you just outscore even Josh Allen last year, and it doesn't matter. But one of you look at the receivers, the idea being like if you get three, four, five of them, right? And they're all in the top 50 scores, they stay healthy. You don't have to worry about the injuries as much as the backs, like it can still be, you know, a very profitable strategy that you can deploy to your point when the draft falls the right way.

So at the very top and we've mentioned this in the running back edition of this pod, but yes, you are going to see running backs way more often infiltrate the top three top five top 10 overall finishers regardless of format, but to Joanne's point.

Zoom out just a little bit top 50. We do see the wider sewers really making up the majority and doing it. It is more so in PPR as expected. Remember, you know, dealing with the position that's really only dealing with targets, but 55% of the top 50 finishers, wider sewers and full PPR still 50 and half and 47% standard.

Do you specifically with this three straight wide receiver strategy, I think that's a better way of saying it and just listing one. Every single time I say, but do you find yourself, you know, if you are PPR or standard like, is this a strategy that it's a lot easier to pull off and four point PPR. Yes. Yes.

And I think you could do it in half as well. I'm pretty much not trying it, you know, in a standard league unless something just goes really crazy like maybe you're picking pick 12 and right, you get Jammar chase falls to you and then maybe you take Devonte Adams and then for whatever reason, like in the third round, you're sitting there and you're just like, OK, great, like Tyrie kill still here, like then, you know, even in a standard, you might do it, but typically, you know, the board's not going to fall that way that often for you. So you don't have to worry about it really that much.

One other thing I would say is like it and it's not just the top 50 like if we look at PPR, even once you zoom out to the top 10 right the wide receivers take over 54% versus 41%. So even though you get less access to the very high ceiling outcomes as top three.

Still top 10, like if we're looking across all running backs receivers and tight ends, if you make up over half the pool with wide receivers, right, top 10 still really good, right, if you zoom out to the top 25 it's 57% of the time, you know, it's sorry 57% of that data pulls represented by wide receivers and just for folks wondering this goes back to 2011 through last year 2021.

Also hidden in this lovely article, Dwayne is another article you wrote talking about fantasy football wide receiver breakouts and this kind of takes you to the targets and there's a lot of them in these first three rounds and I think your main point here was out wide receiver it's not quite the same as running back where sometimes you know we see their best season, then they completely fall off a cliff because that can be the nature of the position at times you reference that specifically in one part of your study of 25 wide receiver one breakouts 52% were players who already had a wide receiver to finish.

On their resume I like the way you say that you know these top top 12 top 24 finishers tend to be frequent flyers it does seem to be a position where like man if we've got the right underlying metrics like we're able to check a lot of boxes I think for these guys that have been there and hopefully we're hoping to take that next breakouts step.

Yeah, and we have a lot of them this year we just we have a lot of guys that are still ascending in value and then we have quite a few you know even veterans right that you know they're still in the primes of their career so.

It's it's it's a good year for it right when the board falls the right way I think there are a lot of ways you can start wide receiver wide receiver wide receiver sorry three wide receivers not like I've said or time like you said good God Dwayne especially with my voice like this like any shortcut you give me to talking like I should be taking it instead of being an idiot but.

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