The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar.

It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were they in such a rush to mobilise the entire Russian army in the first place? Accounts of the origins of the First World War, if they cover this pivotal decision, tend to explain it as an example of Russian aggression, and proof that the Russians, rather than the Germans, were in fact responsible for the outbreak of the war. But there was more going on in the Tsar's court than this.

The Russian government had technically jumped the shark, but they had done so for several reasons which at the time, appeared justifiable. The German ambassador had warned against Russian military measures, and threatened intervention. The Austrians had begun bombarding Belgrade. Yet, by far the most consequential factor in Russia's calculations was its intelligence. This intel depicted Austria, and Germany, as preparing military forces far out of proportion to what they publicly claimed. Ironically, the Russians came to believe that their rivals were mobilising covertly, and in response, they began to do the same, with utterly catastrophic consequences for all involved...

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