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When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

#41: 30 July 1914 III - Immediate Danger of War

When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

Zack Twamley

19th Century, 20th Century, International Relations, Politics, Thirty Years' War, Korean War, 18th Century, First World War, Phd, 17th Century, European History, History, War

4.8773 Ratings

🗓️ 6 January 2025

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Welcome to our first episode of 2025! We return to a pivotal moment in the crisis, when Germany experienced yet another 180 in policy.


A day which began with a frantic German effort to pressure Austria into making concessions soon devolved into the more familiar mission - preparing the realm for war. What had caused this shift in German policy? Why had Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow given up on restraining their ally? Had they resigned themselves to a world war? The answer lay in Russia, and the preparations Russia was making to implement general mobilisation.


If the Tsar had mobilised his entire army against Austria and Germany, then it was hardly possible for Berlin to stand aside and watch. It was also impossible to imagine either side backing down, when doing so now would mean a shameful, expensive retreat, with no guarantees for security or satisfaction. The contemporaries had painted themselves into a corner, and in this episode, you could argue, the writing was now clearly on the wall.


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Transcript

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0:00.0

In summer 1914, the world went to war.

0:04.6

Now 110 years later, we go back to those figures, to those debates, to those questions,

0:12.2

in the greatest failure in the history of diplomacy.

0:16.3

I am Dr. Zach Twomley. You're listening to When Diplomacy Fails, and this is the July crisis. The news is all bad today, and war seems inevitable.

0:59.6

The Germans ask us to guarantee neutrality.

1:02.3

Grey answers, wait and see.

1:04.5

Nicholson, whom I saw several times, expects German mobilization tomorrow.

1:09.4

I confess, it looks like it.

1:12.0

Britain's Director of Military Operations, Sir Henry Wilson, comments on the crisis in his diary, 30th of July 1914.

1:23.2

Austria-Hungary had finally done it.

1:26.5

Emperor Franz Josef had authorized general mobilization,

1:30.2

and from the 5th of August, the entire armed forces of the dual monarchy will be prepared against Russia.

1:36.6

This decision could feed two birds with one scone.

1:40.5

In Vienna, Russian mobilization was taken for granted, and this step would ensure that Austria was prepared to meet the challenge.

1:48.5

Yet, on the other hand, general mobilization would send a shockwave through Berlin and force her to reckon with the new reality.

1:56.6

Once Russia learned of Austrian mobilization, many in Vienna expected her to declare war.

2:02.8

Germany would then be forced to drop its frustrating mediation ideas and weigh in firmly behind her ally.

2:11.0

Just as she had done when declaring war on Serbia two days before, here Austria engaged in escalation to cut through the diplomatic

2:19.5

noise and prevent peacemakers from making any headway. Paradoxically, to avoid the condemnation

2:26.8

of European opinion, Austria had to appear the victim, or at least the defending party,

2:33.5

against Russian provocations, and to preserve this

2:36.4

illusion, a facade of cooperation was maintained. Vienna would continue to humor mediation proposals

...

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