4.9 • 816 Ratings
🗓️ 6 March 2025
⏱️ 19 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
In this episode, I share a critical lesson we learned the hard way—why relying solely on past sales data to forecast inventory for seasonal products can be a big mistake.
For the first three years of our brand, we experienced consistent growth, fueled by marketing, new SKUs, and the surge in demand during COVID. But what we didn’t account for was the actual market demand beyond our own sales numbers.
I break down the risks of over-relying on historical data, how we adjusted our approach, and what you can do to avoid the same mistake.
➡️ All my resources: https://www.andyisom.com/
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0:00.0 | So we have our 4th of July styles, right? And again, every year we're kind of coming out with new fresh 4th of design styles. |
0:06.7 | So what we would do historically is we would look at, okay, how many 4th of July bandanas did we sell last year? |
0:13.2 | Here's where we fell into that trap of forecasting inventory based on last year's sales. |
0:18.2 | We were only paying attention to our sales. We were not paying |
0:22.4 | attention to demand in the market. What's up guys? You're listening to another episode of |
0:35.1 | Selling on Amazon with Andy Isam. |
0:38.0 | Past sales are a poor predictor of future sales. |
0:43.3 | I talked about this topic on my weekly coaching Q&A call with the members of my coaching program. |
0:50.9 | Shout out to those of you who were on that call live with me last week. And of course, |
0:54.6 | all my students who watched the replay in my coaching community. But I felt like this would be a good |
0:59.6 | topic for a podcast episode. And this is one of those honest and transparent episodes for you |
1:08.2 | guys from our own brand and our own business. And I try to remind my students |
1:12.5 | this all the time when I'm, you know, coaching and doing my calls and everything. I don't self-proclaimed |
1:18.5 | to be the best smartest person in the world when it comes to running a business or e-commerce. |
1:26.6 | And like I've said on the podcast before as well, I just have a passion |
1:29.7 | for teaching and helping others. Like I really enjoy, you know, trying to solve complex problems. I kind of |
1:37.6 | view online business as a game, which is why I've dabbled in so many different online |
1:41.5 | businesses. It's like playing different games, finding the game that you're good at, the game that you like, |
1:45.7 | and then figuring things out and learning and, you know, reaching new levels. |
1:50.2 | And again, I'm not the best player of the game, but I like to help other people avoid the obstacles and the challenges. |
1:58.5 | And we could even say defeat the bosses of the game that is |
2:03.2 | Amazon and e-commerce. So again, with that little reminder here, this is one of those lessons |
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