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Battleground

405. Escalation, Ambiguity, and the Ghost of Katyn

Battleground

Goalhanger

History

4.5824 Ratings

🗓️ 28 May 2026

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this episode of Battleground Ukraine, Roger Moorhouse and Saul David analyse a week defined by Russian escalation, psychological warfare, and deep structural fractures behind the frontline.

The Kremlin has intensified its campaign of domestic terror, launching a brutal round of strikes against Kyiv. Among the targets was the newly refurbished Chornobyl Museum—a deeply symbolic attack on historical truth and memory. Russia's deployment of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile has drawn fierce international condemnation, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas slamming it as "reckless nuclear brinkmanship."

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned US diplomats to evacuate the capital ahead of planned "systematic strikes"—a move the team discusses as classic coercive diplomacy designed to fracture Western support. The hosts also unpack the murky diplomatic fallout surrounding a deadly strike on a dormitory in occupied Starobilsk, a location that carries chilling historical echoes of the 1940 Katyn Massacres.

Despite Russia's aggressive rhetoric, the strategic picture tells a different story. Ukraine’s targeted long-range drone strategy continues to bite, successfully shutting down the massive Syzran oil refinery deep inside Russian territory and shifting battlefield momentum. This pressure is exposing cracks within Moscow itself, as reports emerge of an unprecedented split between "hawks" and "doves" among Russia's elite military analyst class.

Finally, Roger and Saul dive into the listener mailbag to answer your questions on:

  • Whether Russian electronic jamming is sending Ukrainian drones off-course into civilian buildings.

  • The legal complexities and political fallout surrounding third-party Russian oil sanctions.

  • The terrifying reality of Putin's nuclear brinkmanship.

  • Whether the high-tech, 20-to-1 casualty ratio achieved in Kupiansk can be replicated across the entire front line.


    Join the Conversation: If you have a question about the war in Ukraine or any of the conflicts we cover, email us at podbattleground@gmail.com

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    Producer: James Hodgson

    A Goalhanger Podcast


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    Transcript

    Click on a timestamp to play from that location

    0:00.0

    Hello and welcome to battleground Ukraine with me, Roger Morehouse and Saul David.

    0:17.7

    This week, once again, the war in Ukraine has reminded us all that it is not frozen,

    0:21.7

    not peripheral, and certainly not winding down into anything tidy and predictable. If anything,

    0:26.5

    the story of this week has been one of escalation married to ambiguity, with heavier strikes,

    0:31.7

    louder threats, stubborn fighting at the front, and a diplomatic landscape still dominated by

    0:36.3

    gestures and empty rhetoric, but thin on resolution. Now, if you've only half glanced at the front, and a diplomatic landscape still dominated by gestures and empty rhetoric,

    0:38.2

    but thin on resolution. Now, if you've only half glanced at the headlines this week,

    0:42.0

    the story that probably stood out was the brutal round of Russian strikes on Kiev and other

    0:46.5

    Ukrainian cities, accompanied by fresh warnings from Moscow about more attacks to come.

    0:51.3

    All of that, of course, is a rather discordant note from the rather more optimistic tone that has prevailed, certainly from these quarters, for the past few weeks.

    0:59.2

    On Sunday, Russia launched a string of attacks against Kiev, including use of an Orishnik ballistic

    1:04.9

    missile, only the third time that this weapon has been deployed in the conflict, which hit

    1:08.7

    the town of Bilat-Zerkva, 80 kilometres south of Kiev.

    1:12.3

    On the ground, some four Ukrainians were killed, as well as around 100 injured. The attacks

    1:17.2

    drew damning criticism from the outside world, as much as anything for the deployment of the

    1:22.2

    Ereshnik, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This, according to the EU's foreign policy supremo

    1:28.7

    Kayakalas, was a political scare tactic and reckless nuclear brinkmanship, adding that the attacks

    1:35.5

    were the result of Russia's efforts on the battleground stalling, so it turned its attention

    1:39.8

    to terrorising civilians. Zelensky was rather more succinct, saying of the Russians in response,

    1:46.4

    they are genuinely deranged. And we should mention the specific symbolism of one of the sites

    1:51.8

    hit at the weekend. Damaged to the Chernobyl Museum in Kiev resonated beyond the immediate

    1:56.8

    physical destruction. War is always partly about narrative, memory and identity, and attacks that

    ...

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