Marshall here. Welcome back to the Realignment.

Happy 4th of July everyone. Today's episode is fitting for a day about natural independence,

speaking with Professor Peter Turchin, author of End Times, elites,

counter-relates, and the path to political disintegration. Peter's work takes approaches and

insights from other fields and applies them to the study of history. End Times covers his work on

what causes communities to go here or fall apart, with an obvious focus on the contemporary

United States. Peter famously predicted in 2010 in Nature magazine that the US would experience a

breakdown in its political order in the year 2020. This conversation and his book covers why.

There's lots to cover and we can't hit all of it in this conversation, but the key takeaway is

political instability stores when the balance between elites and the majority

tips too far towards the elites. That plus the discussion of the elite overproduction phenomenon

and what he terms the wealth pump, something that fuels inequality, are at the center of this story.

Last thing before we dive in, we want to quickly shout out the Realignment sponsor,

the foundation for American Innovation, which till recently was known as the Lincoln Network.

F.A.I. is approaching its 10-year anniversary, so we'll have plenty more news to cover in this space,

the R definitely going to be interested in. Hope you enjoy the conversation.

Peter Turchin, welcome to the Realignment. Thank you, Greg, to be here.

Yeah, I'm glad to be here too. I would like to start this episode off on a positive note,

because we're releasing this week of the 4th of July. We're going to get into a bunch of

pessimistic places. These could be a little dark, but in light of the holiday, I'd love to just hear

from you. What is your best case scenario for the political prognosis of the United States over

the next 10 years? Sure. We'll talk maybe later about the drivers of instability that we have identified

...