Thank you for downloading the Bottom Line podcast. This week, Evan Davis asks his panel of top

business guests to consult the Oracle and predict how they think the economic landscape will look

in 2016. Hello and welcome to a brand new series of The Bottom Line, the Business Conversation

Program. A new year, a new series, and new fears about

the economy. We're being buffeted between inflation and recession. We'll talk about that

and where we might expect the world to be in five years' time. And the business and political

elite gather in Davos this week, we're not there, but we will ask, what's the point of that kind of networking?

With us today are Andy Street, who's the managing director of the department store chain, John Lewis,

Nicola Horlick, Chief Executive of the Fund, Brandeen Asset Management,

and Simon Woodruff, who's the entrepreneur and founder of the Yo company,

which includes YoSushi, the restaurant chain, and Yotel.

Let's start on the economy, though, because there were some pretty shocking figures this week.

The economy was shrinking late last year, it seems.

Even if we allow for the December weather, it was flat.

And let me just get a quick comment, if I can, from each of you on the current state of play by your own experience. Andy, is it as bad as the statisticians are telling us? I'd say not, and I was very surprised by the numbers just yesterday. So retail sales in the final quarter were more robust than that, and certainly John Lewis sales were, so it was a surprise to me. I mean, that could just be that John Lewis is doing well and the rest of the high street is dead, but that's definitely happening, but I was trying to go a bit beyond John Lewis. From what we know of our competitors, the numbers we've seen announced, I don't think it was just a John Lewis phenomenon. Nicola Hawley, how do you feel it's going? Well, we don't have the sort of business like Andy's that's consumer-facing in that way, so it's slightly different. But I have to say, I am pretty pessimistic, unfortunately, about the UK economy in the long term. So I wasn't that surprised. And clearly, you have to take something out for the snow. There's no way that that didn't have an impact.

But as you say, if you allow for that, the economy was still flat.

And that is concerning. But it might be not that surprising. And it can only get worse. Well, that's the problem. I mean, we haven't even started the austerity. All these people are going to be sacked. and I do not believe personally that the private sector is going to absorb all the people who are going to be made redundant in the public sector.

Simon, what about your business? and I do not believe personally that the private sector is going to absorb all the people who are going to be made redundant in the public sector.

Simon, what about your businesses? Are they suffering at the moment?

I mean, we were hit by the snow in particular.

You did notice the snow.

Absolutely for sure. Some of the restaurants were actually closed down.

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