energy prices go up and that tends to hit poor households particularly hard. Some are hit

immediately high petrol prices, others have a bit of a lag, heating. That's the first hit. The

second hit is a more generalized increase in prices. And then the third element, if it gets bad,

is we will see higher unemployment. So a lot will depend on the duration of this war.

And I want to stress this notion that you can stop the war immediately

and everything goes back to normal is ludicrous. Hello and welcome to The Rest is Money with me, Steph McGovern.

I'm with me, Robert Peston.

Now, today we are joined by a podcast friend, Muhammad El-Eryan, is one of the world's most

influential economists and investors. He started his career at the IMF back in the 80s.

He's a chief economic advisor at Alliance, which is the parent company of Pimcore. They manage something like two trillion dollars worth of assets for central banks, for sovereign wealth funds and private money as well.

And he is professor of practice at the Wharton School.

So he is a man who knows what's going on, Robert, when it comes to global economics.

He certainly does. And I can't think you actually have a better person to assess the economic

and financial costs to the whole world of this war launched by Israel and America against Iran.

We should be under no illusion. This is doing harm, obviously terrible human harm within the region,

but it's also going to have a profound impact on all our living standards. So here's our

interview with Mohamed Elerian. Mohamed, as ever, great to see you. What's your best estimate of the

damage so far to the global economy? The current estimates are that growth in the global economy

will be half a percent less than it would have been otherwise, which would take it below 3 percent,

and inflation will be a full percentage points higher than it would have been otherwise,

with the effects hitting the most vulnerable segments of the global economy,

particularly hard.

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