2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: This “X Factor” Could Change Everything

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

BiggerPockets

Education, Business, Investing

4.8 • 16.5K Ratings

🗓️ 1 December 2025

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Want lower mortgage rates? One economic “X factor” could give them to us. It’s time for our 2026 mortgage rate predictions! Is this the year we get back into the 5% mortgage rate range? It might be more likely than you think. But two things are currently holding mortgage rates in limbo, keeping the housing market “stuck” as buyers beg for a more affordable interest rate. These crucial factors could finally budge, and if/when they do, big changes to mortgage rates could follow. For four years, Dave has been sharing his mortgage rate forecast leading up to the new year—and he’s been right almost every time. But we’re not just sharing Dave’s take. We’ll also give you mortgage rate forecasts from top economists at Fannie Mae, NAR, and more. Waiting for lower mortgage rates? Stick around to see if Dave’s prediction is what you want to hear. In This Episode We Cover 2026 mortgage rate predictions and whether we’ll get back into the 5% range The “X factor” that could send mortgage rates into a free fall The two things keeping mortgage rates “stuck” right now (and whether they’ll move) A desperate move from the Federal Reserve to lower mortgage rates that could cause massive ripple effects throughout the economy Interest rate forecasts from top mortgage and real estate organizations And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1207 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Which way will mortgage rates go in 2026?
0:03.0	This is the question that will determine the direction of the housing market and how to invest in real estate for the next year.
0:11.0	Today, I'm giving you my 2026 mortgage rate predictions.
0:15.0	Then I'm going to share some other expert opinions on mortgage rates that I'm personally following.
0:20.0	And then I will reveal the one
0:22.3	big X factor that could totally change the mortgage market in 2026.
0:31.7	Hey, everyone. Welcome to the Bigger Pockets podcast. I'm Dave Meyer, and I'm excited to have you here for the kickoff
0:39.2	to what we call prediction season. Every year, around this time, major forecasters, banks,
0:46.3	random people on the internet, start to make predictions about 2026, and the housing market is
0:51.1	certainly no exception. Some of the opinions that you might hear are solid.
0:56.2	Others, not so much.
0:58.2	So we here at Bigger Pockets want to make sure that you're getting the best quality forecasts
1:02.9	and information as you start planning your strategy and approach to 2026.
1:07.7	So I am going to share with you my own personal predictions, and although past performance does not indicate future results, I've been pretty accurate at this the last couple of years.
1:17.5	But on top of just my own opinion, I've gathered some reputable forecast from across the industry to share with you as well.
1:25.6	So that's what we're doing today, mortgage rates.
1:31.8	And then next week, I'm going to share my predictions for price appreciation, rent growth,
1:37.6	and all that. That's the plan. Let's do it. First up, why are we even talking about mortgage rates? Why are we dedicating an entire episode of the show to forecasting mortgage rates?
1:42.8	I know everyone is probably tired of talking about it, but the
1:46.4	reason I am doing this and spending time on this is that I think it's the single biggest
1:50.8	variable and what happens to the housing market next year. Yeah, there are tons of other important
1:57.5	things. We've got to take into account the labor market and tariffs and
	...

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