Welcome to the Pat Meio Experience presented by Draftgings, a question many people have asked me over the years as you talk about projections, you talk about market shares.

How do you actually make the projections for NFL? It's entirely complicated, not something that I know how to do. I can see it on a page after the fact that I'm mended to what I want. But if you're starting from scratch, how do you do this?

You don't actually have to start from scratch. You can go to run the Sims.com right now. All the stock projections are in there at the moment and you can go amend them anyway. You can save them, customize them, build your own rankings out just based off of projections. That's what the system is there to do. Now, obviously during daily fantasy season, when the league actually starts props, everything like that, you're going to want to get the full package. So run the Sims.com slash mail will get you a discount on all of that.

Do that the end of August or whatever it is, you can mess around with the tools for free right now at run the Sims.com. Just need just need the email. I'll steal your email. How about that and trade and you can use the projection system. Just in Freeman, my partnering prime at run the Sims.com, the one who makes all of the projections is on with me to help walk us through. And this is something you've been doing for a long time, right?

Yeah, it's actually kind of how I broke my way into the fantasy industry many, many years ago was by working on projections as always the guy who wanted to fire up the really elongated fantasy excel sheet to do all the projections.

It's just a really cool concept and I enjoyed it like working through it one year, enjoyed sort of the way you had to make everything sum up to 100% on every team level. So we'll talk about all that for sure. But yeah, it's been a lot of fun and projections has opened up this whole new way of looking at fantasy football.

And so it's kind of core in my DNA at this point. So how useful do you think season long projections are as it pertains to either drafting your best ball team or even like as most people watching this probably drafting their season long light ups because projections don't necessarily match rankings, especially way that a lot of people do write.

Hi, for example, I'll go over to run the Sims.com right now. So after you customize everything make everything you can get your rankings or you can get projections by position at the same time. So let's just click over to running back for a second, you know, half point PPR will sort of by the amount of points that we have there like Ramandri Stevenson is currently number four.

Now, obviously this doesn't account for the Patriots adding another running back or even Tony Pollard at number three. What if Zeke just comes back at a bare minimum discount, whatever it might be. Obviously, these numbers change.

But you can see the ADP next to them. You know, Stevenson's going at 27 overall. Pollard's going at 22nd overall. I think when people do rankings.

Yeah, like Jonathan Taylor's probably going to be at number three behind McCaffrey and Echlor. That would be my guess at least, although projections are telling me a different story. So how do we actually use the projections, well drafting a team and actually making a pit.

Yeah, it's a tough balance because projections don't capture a full range of outcomes for a player. They capture one range of outcomes for each player in each team situation.

And those are obviously subject to change. And what I think is more valuable, more valuable than actually the projections themselves is the act of making the projections like going in there and seeing how much tweaking any one, you know, lever or knob changes sort of the entire landscape of that particular team or that.

That particular position and like Bijon Robinson's a perfect example of this like Bijon Robinson, wiki running back Atlanta Falcons.

A team that's going to run the ball a ton. Yet I'm not projecting the Falcons to be like super explosive offensively. I'm not projecting them to be super high paced or fast or high scoring in that nature.

And so you see that like brings Bijon's like baseline expectation down by quite a bit, but he's a rookie like he may be highly efficient. He may be super explosive. And so you can see how quickly his projection can change when you just tweak a single number.

If you tweak his yards per carry up to five and a half yards of carry because he's a rookie and we don't know how good he is yet.

Or if you tweak his rushing market share up to 70% because you know maybe Cordero Patterson and Tyler Algier are truly obsolete in this new type of offense.

But the projections, the baseline projections are going to give you a sense of like what the normal situation looks like for each of these players. And so you can see how big projectable volume leads towards these players climbing up in the ranks.

Well, I have Atlanta pulled up on the screen right now. So right now the stock projections, everything needs to equal up to 100%. We can go change this is kind of give us a better picture of it.

59% of the rushing share for Bijon Robinson 14% for Ritter.

He is in at 5% to how do you get like the split between a starter and a backup.

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