Regressing to the mean, we'll tell you what it means and which players we're looking at right now on Fantasy Football Today in Five.

Happy Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Adam Azer with Chris Towers. This is Fantasy Football Today in Five.

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as I mentioned all the time. So, Chris, what, how should we define regressing to the mean?

I think there are kind of a handful of definitions, but I think the most general one is just

players who overperformed their ability or their situation or their talent.

And so you can have, you know, a form of that where a player, I think Tony Pollard versus

Ezekiel Elliott's a good example of this. We saw that last year where Tony Pollard looked so

much more efficient than Ezekiel Elliott did where Tony Pollard looked so much more efficient than

Ezekiel Elliott did until Tony Pollard got the Ezekiel Elliott role and then kind of looked

like Ezekiel Elliott. So there's regression from seeing an increased role, which typically

happens. Players are less efficient when they have bigger roles. There's simply like luck regression.

There's just like Austin Echler didn't score enough touchdowns last season.

He'll probably score more touchdowns this season.

There's regression to a player's mean from an outlier performance.

I would say Josh Allen is probably one of the examples of this,

although I think he'll probably be pretty good.

And then there's just plain old luck.

There's things that happen in football that are just random variants.

One of the best examples would be a defense that turns an inordinate number of their fumbles forced into recoveries. That's the kind of thing that you generally don't have a ton of control over, and it's just like you got kind of lucky. All right, so let's start with a couple of running backs. J.K. Dobbins is one of them, and he averaged six yards per carry. So that's something you're saying is probably not going to happen again. But does it matter? Because we know he's going to be good, really good, probably in yards per carry. Right. Yeah. I think you can safely assume that given the history of this Ravens offense, the fact that Mark Ingram Average five yards per carry in 2019, Gus Edwards has been north of five yards per carry each of the last three seasons. I think you can assume that J.K. Dobbins will be in that five yards per carry range,

but he was at six last season.

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