This is CBSi on the world. I'm John Thatcher visiting with my

colleague Hennetol leaving the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Who knows Russia, who knows Central Asia, certainly knows Ukraine

having been there during wartime, and now we're looking at the world after the

ceasefire speculated in Ukraine. For Russia the new budget is out and it's

everything for defense. War Keynesianism is the way they joke about it in

Moscow. That means the state is spending spending spending. There's a

manpower shortage everywhere. There's also the limitations of sanctions.

However I identify that the budget so heavily defends 6-8% of GDP, some fantastic number.

Short changes health care, education, social services, infrastructure, roads, in other words, everything a modern state needs to keep the population safe.

It's all gone. So Enidolold this suggests that immediately the Kremlin must move.

How? I don't know, but they must restore their revenues, they must fight inflation that's coming.

And is that imaginable that they could resume their

monetization of their energy to Europe is that is that something that's

impossible now or can be done?

I think it's impossible as long as the war goes on.

I mean, after the war, well, that will depend on the terms

on which the war ends, but it will also depend, of course,

on what happens in the Middle East.

We've just seen a considerable spike in oil prices because of concern.

If there is a full-scale war with Iran, then one can expect much higher energy prices. And of course that

will put indirectly the U.S. economy in a difficult position, which is why I suspect that the Biden administration and the

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