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ChooseFI | Financial Independence Podcast

188 | Stay the Course: Investment Strategy During Market Downturns

ChooseFI | Financial Independence Podcast

Jonathan Mendonsa & Brad Barrett | Choose FI Media, Inc

Business, Careers, Investing

4.8 • 5.2K Ratings

🗓️ 8 April 2020

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The biggest investing decision you'll ever make isn't picking stocks or timing the market—it's deciding what percentage of your portfolio goes into stocks versus bonds. Rick Ferry breaks down asset allocation using a surprisingly simple metaphor: a birthday cake. The cake itself is your stock allocation (the growth engine), bonds are the frosting (stability), and cash is the sprinkles on top (immediate needs). But here's where it gets interesting—if you decide to add extra "icing" by overweighting small cap value or other tilts, you'd better love that flavor, because you'll be eating it for 25 years. Ferry challenges the one-size-fits-all advice that dominates the FI community, making a critical distinction between investment philosophy and strategy. While your philosophy might be "stay the course," your strategy—the specific mix of assets—has to be tailored to your unique circumstances, risk tolerance, and, most importantly, your ability to stick with it during market crashes. This episode tackles the risks of chasing trendy allocations, the psychology of watching your portfolio underperform, and why emotional comfort might matter more than optimal returns. Chapters: [00:00:00] Introduction to Rick Ferry [00:04:00] Asset Allocation Metaphor: The Cake [00:09:05] Small Cap Value Discussion [00:15:01] Investment Philosophy vs. Strategy [00:24:19] Understanding Emotional and Behavioral Aspects of Investing [00:26:15] Conclusion and Resources Key Quotes: "Key investing decision: Balance your stock and bond allocations." [00:04:35] "Investing is a long-term commitment—choose your strategy wisely." [00:11:35] "Your ability to stick with your portfolio matters more than the exact allocations." [00:25:20] "Your strategy must match your commitment level." [00:26:06] "Self-awareness is key to successful investing." [00:24:19] Key Takeaways: Asset Allocation is Key: Determine the right balance between stocks, bonds, and cash, as these will dictate your investment performance. [00:04:00] Long-Term Commitment: Investment strategies should be maintained over long periods, even when underperformance occurs. [00:11:35] Personalized Strategies: Investment choices should be based on individual financial situations, risk tolerance, and emotional comfort levels rather than generic advice. [00:15:01] Emotional Comfort Matters: Your capacity to endure market fluctuations is vital; develop a strategy that aligns with your psychological comfort. [00:25:20] Action Items: Evaluate how much risk you can handle in market downturns; this will guide your asset allocations. [00:19:28] Focus primarily on the significant factors influencing your portfolio, particularly the balance between equities and fixed income. [00:18:52] Create a personalized investment policy prior to market fluctuations; define how you will react in volatile situations. [00:20:14] Terminology: Asset Allocation: The process of dividing investments among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds, and cash. [00:04:00] Small Cap Value: Stocks of smaller companies that are considered to be underpriced compared to their fundamentals. [00:09:05] Index Funds: Mutual funds or ETFs designed to follow a particular index, allowing for broad market exposure. [00:15:01] Bogleheads: A group of investors who follow the investing principles of John Bogle, focusing on low-cost index investing. [00:26:15] Related Resources: Rick Ferry's Website [00:26:15] Bogleheads on Investing Podcast [00:26:15] ▶ Listen Next: Ep. 189 — Investor Policy Statement | Essential Listening

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey everyone, welcome back to part two with this interview series. We're doing with Rick Ferry.

0:04.2

Rick Ferry has written seven books, literally wrote the book on ETFs. He is a figure in the

0:09.6

bogeyhead movement and really is continuing the great work that John Bogell, Jack Bogell,

0:15.7

the father of index fund investing really piloted and carrying this torch. A lot of our own

0:20.9

investing philosophy is derived from the work that he has done and very excited to continue this

0:28.0

conversation. You know, just recently we talked with him about his backstory in an episode called

0:32.9

Escape from Wall Street. And in that episode, we were taking a look at the assets under management

0:38.4

industry. We were taking a look at assets under management fees in particular. And really having

0:45.1

a frank conversation about is there a guy? Is there a person that can consistently beat the market

0:50.5

over time? Rick's aha moment led him to say, no, there really isn't. And created a very interesting

0:59.5

model where he offered investment management, but did so just using index funds, fascinating,

1:06.3

fascinating conversations. So check that episode out if you haven't already. In this one, we're going

1:10.6

to be talking about asset allocation. And we're doing so in through the lens of making a cake,

1:16.7

a cake with icing and sprinkles and candles. But even more importantly, we're going to be talking

1:21.9

about the role of stocks versus bonds, international funds, factor investing, getting Rick Ferries

1:27.5

own perspective on this. Do you need to put extra weight into small cap value? And you know, what role

1:33.6

does that play in your in your final result? So I think this is a great chance for us to

1:39.6

look at the power of index fund investing in do so through the lens of this most recent bear market

1:46.0

that we're experiencing in March of 2020 as we're all dealing with COVID-19 and the fall out on

1:51.6

the economy from that. What a great opportunity to have this conversation. I know it worked then,

1:56.6

but what about now? So anyways, welcome to Choose FI.

2:16.3

So Rick, I want to hop right into this and here's the frame for this for how I want to set this up.

...

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