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The John Batchelor Show

13: Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Instability in the Middle East Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Schanzer analyzes the Gaza ceasefire, noting Hamas is deliberately slow-rolling the return of bodies to maintain lever

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 22 October 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Instability in the Middle East Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with John Batchelor Schanzer analyzes the Gaza ceasefire, noting Hamas is deliberately slow-rolling the return of bodies to maintain leverage. New regional tensions are rising, including reports of Egypt moving aggressive offensive weapons into the Sinai and Turkey calling for a pan-Islamic offensive against Israel. Schanzer notes that internal power struggles between tribes and a weakening Hamas could lead to political fragmentation in Gaza.
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Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Batchel with my good colleague, Jonathan Shanzer of FD.

0:07.5

He's the executive director.

0:08.9

I'm told that the bookish leader of Hezbollah made a presentation not unlike Nasrallah on video.

0:17.3

He's in an undisclosed location.

0:19.7

Not inspirational, but he was there. Hesbullah, what if they

0:23.6

learned from watching Gaza and this ceasefire? Are there reasons for them to think we invented that

0:31.4

and they're executing it, or are they going in a new direction? Well, it's fascinating, John.

0:36.5

There were indications this week that Hisbullah reached out to Saudi Arabia, asking if they

0:43.2

could turn a new page.

0:45.5

The Saudis are, they've already designated Hisbalah as a terrorist organization.

0:51.9

They are not interested in necessarily normalizing ties with Hezbollah,

0:57.1

but I think they understand that the Saudis may ultimately be the funders of the reconstruction of Lebanon

1:02.9

and that they may have more of a stake in whatever government is coming next.

1:07.0

You get a sense that Hisbalah understands that their future may lie only in their

1:13.3

existence as a political party and not as a violent group. And they may be, maybe starting to

1:20.2

think about that future. If that is the case, it would be fascinating indeed. Does that mean

1:25.7

disarmed, Jonathan? Well, theoretically, yes. And we know that the

1:30.7

Israelis are demanding it. The United States is demanding it. The government of Lebanon is demanding

1:35.5

it right now. The question is, at what point will the Hizbalah fighters realize that they have no

1:42.7

choice? And I think a lot of that really does rest

1:46.1

with the pressure brought to bear by the Arabs, by the French, by the United States, by the Israelis.

1:54.0

I'm not seeing a lot of it right now. Right now it's the government itself that is making noise about it,

...

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