Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend, Sarah Longwell, publisher of the bulwark.

We actually have a quite packed show today. There is a lot of things that I want to talk to Sarah about.

Some of them are very immediate news of the day stuff. Some of it is big picture stuff, part of our ongoing

colloquy. And some of it's about pinball. Not going to lie. Okay. We're going to save that to the end.

But I'm having a little bit of a crisis on the pinball front. Just stashed that away.

Okay. So very quickly, we're going to go to war with Iran. Today, we have word that the U.S.

government is ordering employees out of embassies in Israel and Iraq. I believe the Chinese have already done the same.

This is the kind of thing you just do in the run up to war.

Wow.

What's your degree of certainty on that?

This is the secret show.

So as we should just, and because this is the free part of the secret show, we should tell

people that secret show rules are that we are allowed, you're our first draft of analysis.

I mean, it seems to me like a three and four chance that we are going to actually.

75% chance.

Yeah, I think so.

So like not, it's not impossible that we get out of this, but it seems like everybody involved wants it. It seems like Israel sure wants it. Trump sure wants it. And I think the Iranians have decided their position is stronger if they get attacked by Israel and the United States as well.

So given that, it just feels like we're going.

J.D. Vance assured people today that, oh, this won't be a prolonged conflict.

We're just going to go in there and get out, which is, I guess, one way.

Has anybody else ever said that?

Have we seen that movie before? Well, what's, I mean, what's funny about that, though, is that it just dynamites your own leverage in extracting any sort of concessions in the lead up to a ceasefire, right? I mean, to say in the administration, like, hey, we may go and bomb a bunch of shit, but don't worry, afterwards,

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