meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
The Fantasy Football Club with Sal Vetri

10 NFL Bets You Must Exploit for The Divisional Round

The Fantasy Football Club with Sal Vetri

Sal Vetri

Fantasy Sports, Sports

5.0784 Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2026

⏱️ 18 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Get your free $50 Bet here: https://link.prizepicks.com/LME0/SAL23

10 NFL Bets You Must Exploit for The Divisional Round

(Data source credits: Fantasy Life - Player Profiler - PFF)

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

I don't know if you know this, but last week I won over $6,000 betting on the NFL playoffs,

0:04.5

and this week we have four more massive games. Now, most people are betting on the playoffs completely wrong, but you don't have to. In fact, here's how you could take advantage, because in this video, we're breaking down the 10 best bets for the NFL divisional round. And we're starting with a man that you all know, Christian McCaffrey, coming off of yet again another amazing year,

0:21.0

2,000 total yards, over 400 touches, actually stayed healthy. And at this point, his receiving

0:26.1

game role is way too hard to ignore, especially since George Kittle is now banged up and injured.

0:31.3

Now, because of this, I start to look at McCaffrey's yardage plays. And in terms of his rushing

0:35.4

and receiving on their own, they don't look that great for me but his total total yards of 110 rushing plus receiving is pretty appealing now is it too high to end up taking the over here well let's break it down because after all mcalfrey does have a tough match up this week he's taking on the seahawks defense which depending on the metric that you look at they're arguably the best in the league across the board. But the one thing that McAfrey does have in his advantage is the fact that the 49ers are seven-point underdogs this week. They're on the road. They're not expected to win this game at all, especially without George Kitto, the defense being banged up all season long. Ricky Pearsall not at 100%. Who knows if he even plays in this game as of this recording early in the week. So there's a pretty good chance that they're going to be playing from behind. There's a good chance that Brock Purdy instead of throwing 28 to 30 times is going to throw 40 plus. And if that's what's going to happen here, McCaffrey's probably going to flirt with 10 or more targets. And for what it's worth, Christian McCaffrey this year has gone over 110 yards in the far majority of his games. These are the game logs according to player profiler. So this is week one right here. He had 142 yards. By the way, that was against the same Seattle Seahawks defense all the way back in week one. Then he had 107, so he just missed it. But 140, 141, 139, 11, 201, 173. I mean, we could keep going here. 121, 142, 146, 181, right? This past week is well in the playoffs. He ended up going for over 110 total yards, thanks to 66 receiving yards against the Eagles. In total, McCaffrey has gone over 110 total yards in 12 out of 18 games this year. That's two thirds of his games, and he's going to be needed more than ever in this one. Here is that game log from week one against Seattle. In week 18, he was shut down for just 57 total yards. They only scored three points on offense. Offense, I expect Kyle Shanahan to make adjustments. You could see he had 69 yards, week one against this Seattle team, and then 73 receiving yards on nine catches. Now, I'm not sure if he'll have nine catches in this game, but this is the exact type of outcome I could see happening. George Kittle also got hurt in that game in week one against Seattle. That led to Christian McCaffrey, especially in the second half, picking up a ton of receptions, nine catches, 73 yards. I could see another big seven-plus reception game, 60 to 70 plus receiving yards, and even a meteor worker day on the ground get you there for more than 110 total yards. So because of that, that's exactly why the first play we're going to be taking here when we build this entry. Our first entry will be a five pick entry. You could tail that if you want. I'll show you once we end up doing the first five picks and a finalized entry. You get a little bonus code as well. And then we'll go into building out another four to five pick entry, maybe some bonus picks at the end. So we start with Christian McCaffrey. And then I want to go over to Khalil Shakir. Kalil Shakur, who had a great game last week in the first round against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the top five secondary coming into that game. Now, Kalushikor, his prop opened that four receptions, four and a half receptions, I should say,

3:10.4

and a tough matchup on the road again against the Denver Broncos, once again, another difficult defense and secondary that Shakir will have to play. But as I mentioned, we just saw him in peak form. Kalir Shakur had 12 catches for 82 yards last week. Now, the majority of these receptions were at or behind the line of scrimmage, but that's fine. That's the type of player that he is, a short yardage player who picks up yards after the catch. And by the way, there's not a lot of pass catchers left on this bill's offense. They don't have Gabe Davis. He's on IR. They just lost Tyrell Shavers, who was a depth piece who was actually playing more because other players are on IR as well. Curtis Samuel was on IR, right? They lost two pass catchers in last week's game alone,

3:43.1

so there's a pretty good chance that Kalerichikar once again is going to be leaned on in this very pivotal divisional matchup against the number one seed the Broncos. They play the first game of the weekend on Saturday afternoon. And you can see right here, the bills are actually one and a half point underdog, so maybe Josh Allen throws a little bit more than usual in a game with a decent total for a good defense in the Broncos being at home, 46 points.

4:01.6

So there will be some points scored in this game. But at the end of the day, you know Patrick Sertan, you know these outside cornerbacks in the safety play for the Broncos. It is a solid secondary. But if there is an easier, if there is an easier, relatively easier place to pick up production,

4:32.0

yardage, and move the chains against Denver. It's in the middle of the field from your slot wide receivers and tight ends, and that's exactly where Kalil Shakir plays. So although the Broncos do rank seventh overall in coverage play this year, if we had to take a player against them, it would be the slot wide receiver. And look, coming off of a 12 catch game, the game before that to end the season.

4:34.0

I think Shakir had like another seven receptions.

4:50.9

Four and a half feels way too low. It almost feels too good to be true. It feels like a trap, but sometimes the obvious plays are the right place. So for our second play, we're going to go ahead and take Kalia Shakur, the bill's number one wide receiver, one of their only wide receivers left healthy. We're going to take for more than four four and a half catches in this game as a road underdog. And then we're going to move on to the Rams tight end, Colby Parkinson. He had a nice mid-season push towards the end of the year as well with Tyler Higby banged up. But the one thing right now that I want to look at for Colby Parkinson is if you pull up the prop market, he currently has a prop set at two and a half

5:04.8

receptions. Two and a half receptions doesn't feel like a lot. You look through some of the game logs this year and there's weeks where Colby Parkinson is having four or five catches. He's scoring touchdowns. However, just two weeks ago, Tyler Higbee returned from an injury against the Arizona Cardinals and Tyler Higby over his past two games has been running 23 routes per game, according to the Fantasy Life game logs tool right here. So he's running 23 routes per game. He's averaging four and a half targets per game these last two games. And what does that mean? It means there's an extra tight end on the field, a veteran tight end who Sean McVeigh and Matthew Stafford Trust, and that's directly cutting into not only the playing time from Colby Parkinson, but his ability to earn targets. Not to mention, Terrence Ferguson was ruled out last week in the playoffs. If he's able to play and get some snaps heading into this divisional matchup, well, that only hurts Parkinson even more. So I'm actually going to take Colby Parkinson for less than two and a half catches. I did. as of right now that play is not no longer available i do think it'll pop back up later in the week though

5:56.7

but i'll show you the final slip. We ended up getting it when it was available. Now, the next play I want to talk about is a very polarizing player this year, like if you're a fantasy player, if you just bet on this player and Kenneth Walker, it seems like he was having a ton of good games, but just never scoring touchdowns and never putting it all together. But Kenneth Walker, very quietly over the past month of the season, has been much more involved in the Seahawks offense, has taken on a much bigger role in this offense as well. In fact, if you look over the past month, this includes the Seahawks being on by, so they played three games during that time. Kenneth Walker is averaging 14 rush attempts per game and when you look at his rushing yards of 83 yards per game, and is receiving yards of 35 yards per game, I mean, the guy is going out there right now and averaging around 118 total yards per game. That's pretty solid. So what I want to look at here is Kenneth Walker's rush attempts for this game. His rush attempts are set at an over under of 13, whereas Zach Sharpenazer set at an over under of 11.5.

6:45.5

Now, this is very interesting. He's averaging 14 rush attempts per game the past month. The last time we saw him was in week 18 against his 49ers team that he's playing this week as well. And in that matchup against the 49ers, Kenneth Walker saw 16 carries. He had 97 yards. He averaged over six yards per touch against a banged-up 49ers defense that is definitely playing better than expectations would say without Fred Warner, without Joey Bosa, having a bunch of guys banged up.

7:08.0

But Kenneth Walker has been playing well. The last time we saw him against the same defense, he averaged over six yards per touch.

7:13.3

And now he's rested coming out of the by week. His offensive line is going to get back Charlesles cross as well that's very important and he enters this game on saturday night football at home as a seven point favorite historically when you're a seven point favorite it means the running backs will get more carries in the second half than usual because the team is expected to be leading it's even better when you factor in that the san franciscoers, according to PFF, are tied with the

7:34.4

Giants for the worst run defense in the NFL. So when you look at all these things, an unbelievable matchup, you're rested, your offensive line is healthier, and you're a big favorite. I actually like Kenneth Walker to see more than 13 carries this week. So for our fourth play here, we're going to take Kenneth Walker for more than 13 carries. Now, I got him at 12 and a half, but I still like the number at 13.

7:52.5

Now, there's one more play in this slip that we're going to take kenneth walker for more than 13 carries now i got him at 12 and a half but i still like the number at 13 now there's one more play in this slip that we're making we're making a five pick entry and then a four pick entry and then some bonus picks so for the last play in this slip i want to look at the bills running back james cook and here's the deal james cook's player prop right now is currently set in the betting market at 76 and a half rushing yards. Believe it or not, it opened as high as I believe 82 and a half rushing yards. I looked at it when it was 81.5 rushing yards. So 76 and a half rushing yards. Now this might seem low to you. You've seen plenty of games this year where James Cook has gone off. He's gone for over 100 yards, 150 plus total yards. He's looked great at times this year. But now he has to take on the Denver Broncos who have a top five run defense. Not only do they have a top five run defense, their road favorites this week, which with an extra week of rest and an extra week more importantly to prepare for a team like the Buffalo Bills who mostly lean on their run game, especially like we mentioned earlier, because majority of their wide receivers are currently injured. But the problem for James Cook, the second half of the season, when he's been facing these more elite run defenses, he's began to struggle. And that's exactly what the Broncos are. The Broncos right now, according to NFL Pro, allow just 91 rushing yards per game. The second fewest in the NFL this season behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, by the way, James Cook played last week and only had 46 rushing yards, one of his worst games of the season. Oh, by the way, in week 17 against another top five defense, like he'll be facing this week against the run in the Eagles, James Cook, despite having 20 carries, only had 74 rushing yards. He's averaging less than 70 rushing yards per game, the second half of the season against top 10 run defenses. Part of that is the offensive line breaking down. Part of that of the receivers breaking down and other teams loading the box against James Cook. But that's a lot of what you can expect this week against Buffalo because their main priority on defense will be to stop the run. If you stop the run, you force Josh Allen to throw to his tertiary and fourth and fifth string wide receivers. So because of that, we're taking James Cook for less than his rushing yards. We got it at 81.5 rushing yards. I still like it at 76 and a half. And this is how we build our first slip. I put $100 on this to win 2000. By the way, last week we won over $6,600 as well. Just taking these exact plays that we're talking about in the video, we could pop up a screenshot as well right now. All right, so this one's $100 to win 2000. We took McAfree for more than 110 yards. Shakir's receptions, Parkinson under his receptions, Kenneth Walker over rush attempts, and James Cook under rushing yards. Now, here's the deal. I took all these over on prize picks. We've been partnered with them for basically five plus years since like their inception and you could get right now a free 50 dollars to play on price picks with either the QR code on the screen or you click the link in the description below and use sal 23 all one word s a l2 3 so you can get a free 50 to play with be sure to share this with your friends and the people that will be watching as well. You could all get that free $50.

10:40.4

All right, now let's build our second entry and it's going to start with the 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy because believe it or not, he currently has a line in the betting market set at a half a passing touchdown. Will Brock Purdy basically just throw one touchdown this week? That's how good this Seahawks defense is. The last time we saw Brock Purdy against the Seahawks in week 18 fighting for the number one overall seed, he did not throw a touchdown.

10:37.7

So I guess it kind of makes sense. But if you were to look at Brock Purdy's game logs right here, his passing touchdowns, week one, he had two. Let's scroll through this. He had two, two, three, one, one, three, and zero. So basically that sums up to all but one game. Nine out of his 10 games, despite leaving some of those games early being banged up. Nine out of his 10 games, he's had at least one passing touchdown this year, including week one against the Seattle Seahawks defense, where he had two without having George Kittle the second half. Now, it'll be way harder without having Kittle the entire game and Ricky Pierce all banged up, but I'm going to bet that Kyle Shanahan, I would say right there with McVeigh as the best play caller in the NFL, we'll have enough juice in this offense to get at least one passing touchdown for Brock Purdy. So we're going to start this one off by taking Brock Purdy for more than a half a passing touchdown this week. I mean, after all, he still does have Joanne Jetting's a red zone weapon. Jake Tongis has been a nice backup, potentially Ricky Pearsall, Christian McCaffrey, who had two receiving touchdowns last week, right? He still has weapons on offense. Next up, let's talk about Colston Loveland, the bear's rookie tight end, the bear's rookie tight end, who at 21 years old, besides Caleb Williams, Colston Lovelveland, is the most important player on this bear's offense that is crazy as a rookie tight end. And now heading into this week, he has a player prop in the market, currently a square set up at four and a half receptions against the Los Angeles Rams. Now, four and a half receptions feels pretty crazy because over the past four to six weeks or so, Colston Lovelin has completely broken out and he's become the top target in this offense. In fact, over his past four games, which includes a playoff game, which includes very meaningful end of season games for the division against the Green Bay Packers and some of those, you could see he had a 30% target share. Now, if you're not familiar, earning 30% of your team's targets, that's what a target share is, is like top five in the NFL over the course of a season.

12:20.9

It is unheard of for a rookie tight end to do.

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Sal Vetri, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Sal Vetri and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.