Hello and welcome to the Friday January 5th 2018 edition of Tesla Daily Unofficial Tesla Podcast. My name is Rob Maower. Today we are talking about

Q1 delivery estimates. Tesla stock on the day finished up 0.62% to $316.58

This compared to the NasdDAQ up 0.83.

Overall, a pretty tough week for Tesla finishing down 7.6

compared to the NASDAQ up 3.5%.

Supercharger network update, we are still at 1,136 supercharging locations.

So as promised today, I thought I would spend some time going through my estimates for Q1 deliveries,

specifically around model 3. I kind of expect model S and model X to be similar in

delivery count to Q4 production, which as a reminder was slightly over 22,000. I think S&X deliveries will be around that level,

maybe a little bit lower because Tesla did sell through a lot of their inventory in

Q4 so they may want to try to build that back up a little bit in Q1.

Now there's definitely always a chance that if Q1 production goes very well on

model S and model X that Tesla could deliver more than 22,000.

I think anywhere up to probably 24,000, probably not 25,000, but 24,000 would be within the realm of possibility, I think,

but my expectations and my estimates are lower than that.

Obviously, the more important number that we'll be looking at

is model three deliveries and production.

We'll get these numbers in the first couple of days of April.

So I've spent quite a lot of time thinking about this and thinking about what to expect

from Tesla and Q1, how to expect the model 3 ramp to progress from here. It seems like things are

starting to accelerate, at least in the last couple of weeks of Q4. But I do expect that after Q4,

Tesla probably lowered their production rate to make adjustments and those really peak rates that they were running at in Q4 were to increase the

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