You're listening to Robert Wright's Non-Zero podcast. You're listening to Robert Wright's Non-Zero Podcast.

Hi, Anatole.

Hello, Bob. Nice to be back.

Good to have you back. Let me introduce us. I'm Robert Wright, publisher of Non-Zero Newsletter. This is the non-zero podcast. You are Anatole Levin, the director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. You are someone who's been thinking about Russia and Ukraine for a long time. In fact, 25 years ago, as you may recall,

you published a book called Ukraine and Russia. Now, at that time, the subtitle was a fraternal

rivalry. Unfortunately, things have gotten less fraternal, but you've been keeping track of events.

In fact, you wrote a couple of pieces recently that I want to talk about.

One was in foreign policy called how the Russian establishment really seized the war in Ukraine

ending. And then there was one posted just today, I think, on responsible statecraft, which

Quincy puts out, kind of taking into account the

latest events, including, well, various things will get to. And you know, one thing I realized

in reading that is that we may be entering a phase where there are new forms

of escalatory potential. I mean, people have been worried about escalation for some time,

NATO getting directly involved, possibly things even going nuclear. But I think we're entering a new phase that maybe has new kinds of perils. And let me just

set the stage a little for that. So as of a few months ago, it seemed like things were, you know,

fairly static in Ukraine. I had kind of almost quit paying attention. Then Russia started making

sustained gains in the Donbass. It was increasingly clear that

Ukraine was on its heels. And then Zelensky surprised everyone when Ukraine launched this

incursion into Russia, into the Kursk province. It caught Russia sufficiently off guard.

The Ukraine now says it controls about 500 square miles of Russian territory.

I want to ask you about how that is playing out and affecting the chances for the war ending anytime soon.

Anyway, since then, it seems that Russia has intensified its aerial, aerial assault, including on civilian infrastructure.

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