Hello, fellow rebel capitals, hope you're well. So we have big news with the GDP prediction from the Atlanta Fed.

This algorithm is called GDP now. And it's kind of a forecasting tool the Fed uses to determine in real time what they think this quarter's real GDP numbers are going to look like.

So let's shoot over to the Atlanta Fed's website and check out this recent change they've made.

And this not only surprised Marcus, but it shocked me.

You'll see why.

I think we need to really look beneath the hood and see what's going on with these numbers.

And why on earth did they change their indicator or their forecasting tool to such a dramatic degree just either today or yesterday.

So let's go over to the website, your GDP now, and you can see this huge change.

They went from forecasting, what was it, just a couple days ago, or maybe even yesterday. No, I'm sorry. Yes, it was a couple days ago. They were at barely over 2%. So call it, eh, 2.1, 2.2%. And then it goes straight up to 3.8.

And then today it goes up to 4.6.

4.6.

This is great.

Now, keep in mind, this is real.

This is not nominal.

This is adjusted for inflation. So the Atlanta Fed is forecasting, this is their real-time forecasting tool,

4.6. So we go from a negative 3, a revised negative 2, to a positive 4.6. Now, I know a lot of you

that pay attention to this stuff are probably saying to yourself, oh, well, George, that makes sense because we had that huge drag on GDP in Q1 because everyone

was front-running tariffs and that increased the size of the deficit, which negatively impacts GDP.

Right, but you're not thinking about the other components of it. So we're going to dive into

that a little bit deeper here in just a moment. But let's read what they're saying and what their

explanation is for this massive increase. So GDP now model estimate for real GDP growth.

In the second quarter, 2025 is 4.6 on June 2nd, up from 3.8 May 30th.

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