5 • 774 Ratings
🗓️ 2 August 2025
⏱️ 24 minutes
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You're Drafting The Wrong Quarterbacks (Take These 5 Instead)
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0:00.0 | Most people are drafting the wrong quarterbacks in fantasy football this year, and it's going to cost them winning their league. |
0:04.8 | So don't make the same mistake as everybody else because you want to target the quarterbacks who actually have upside this year, and we're going to talk about five of them in this video. Now, if you're not familiar, I'm Salvatry. I've been helping people for nearly eight years win their fantasy leagues, and I plan to do the same for you in this video. And let's kick things off with Kyler Murray, who is currently one of the most undervalued quarterbacks in all of fantasy football, because when you look at where he currently goes, his ADP, his average draft position, he goes as the 84th overall player. He's like a seventh or eighth round fantasy pick. He's the ninth quarterback in drafts right now going ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Caleb Williams. And in my opinion, Kyler just has so much more upside then those players, and we really just saw that upside finally last year because he stayed healthy for all 17 games. You could see that right here. He plays all 17 games compared to last year or previous years when he's getting an ACL injury in 2022, in 2023, when he's recovering from that ACL, and he's not fully back. In 2024, he's finally back. Another year removed from the ACL. And what does |
0:55.1 | he do? He flashes as a passer over 3,800 yards. He completes nearly 69% of his passes. And if you |
1:00.7 | keep scrolling over here, the rushing upside came back. 572 rushing yards was the second most of his |
1:06.1 | career. This all helped him finish as a top 12 fantasy quarterback over 18 fantasy points per game for |
1:11.1 | the third straight season. Now, the only reason why he didn't finish higher in points per game is some other quarterbacks broke out last year, Baker Mayfield, Jaden Daniels, Sam Darnold. When normally that many guys, Jared Gough as well, don't break out, especially later picks and drafts. But the other reason is, well, he just ended up not having the greatest play calling and not the best surrounding cast in terms of wide receivers because Marvin Harrison busted last year. |
1:10.7 | And yet despite not having the greatest play calling and not the best surrounding cast in terms of wide receivers because Marvin Harrison busted last year. And yet despite not having |
1:31.4 | great wide receivers around him or supporting cast outside of Trey McBride, he still finished |
1:35.4 | top 10 in terms of true completion percentage. So his passing efficiency also hit near career |
1:39.7 | highs completing almost 70% of his passes. And his expected points added his EPA. This is an efficiency metric overall for quarterbacks. It kind of takes into account a bunch of different things. But he was a top 10 quarterback in that. And again, that's just as a passer last year. He looked good despite Marvin Harrison busting and not doing anything. But as a rusher, he finally looked good once again. Another year removed from that 2022 ACL multi-ligament meniscus tear injury as well. And in 2023, it limited him. But last year it didn't. He had 572 rushing yards, top five amongst quarterbacks. That's 33 per game. And he also scored five rushing touchdowns, seventh most. So this is a guy who last year, everything started to click and come together. And we know that Kyler Murray has that top five upside, that league winning upside thanks to his mobility because we saw it early in his career, the quarterback three, the quarterback four, the quarterback seven in three of his first four years. Even in 2023, when he was limited for half the games, he still finished as a top 10 quarterback. Again, last year he finished QB12 overall. If he had like one or two more overall touchdown, just one more touchdown, that's how close it was. He would have finished as like a top seven quarterback again. So everything for Kyler was quietly quicking last year. The biggest one was the health. And now he's another year removed from that ACL. So that's what's different heading into this year. I think we're going to get even more rushing upside because it worked last year for that offense. And if we look at the top 10 overall or just the overall top offenses in terms of projected points this year from Hayden Wings, this is via Vegas prop lines team total lines right now. You can see that Arizona ranks top 10 in the NFL, right next to Philadelphia, right next to Washington and Kansas City and Detroit, 23.6 points per game is what they're projected for. So this is expected to be a good offense this year, with |
3:07.8 | Kyla Murray being at the helm of that. I think that means a lot of points for him and this team. Now, the funny thing is, if you look at the actual surrounding cast, really not much has changed here. You talk about the backfield. It's the same backfield as last year, reliable while he's been healthy and he was healthy last year, James Connor and Trey Benson, who was a rookie last year. Okay, so that's the running backs. |
3:04.5 | Let's now go back to the wide receiver room, and it's just the same unit here. |
3:07.9 | It's Marvin Harrison, who we hope |
3:27.8 | is going to be used better this year entering year two. It's Michael Wilson entering year three, |
3:31.4 | who's been an okay like second or third option. Everybody else here is like the same. Greg Dorch is |
3:35.5 | still on this team. Trey McBride, one of the best tight ends in football, if not the best. Up there as a top three pass catcher if he starts to find the end zone could easily finish as the tight end one overall in fantasy. So they're just rinse and repeating everything here. They're just banking on another year in this system, especially the big one here is for Marvin Harrison that they could take another step forward. So like right now when I see Kyler Murray going as the 84th overall player in round seven or eight of drafts, I would just much rather have him than a guy who goes 25 picks before in fantasy drafts in Baker Mayfield. And I get it. Baker Mayfield was amazing last year, but so many things have changed. Chris Godwin might not start the season healthy. He might start the year on pup. Tristan Wharfs, one of the best players, not only on the Bucks, but in the entire NFL, their offensive lemon, he might start the year in the Pupp list. This team also lost Liam Cohn, and I get it, they've lost back-to-back offensive coordinators and have still |
4:16.6 | been good, but how much can you actually keep that up? Right? This is the concern overall for Baker, and when it comes to Kyler, he just has that cheat code mobile upside. I want him instead. And I also want Jalen Hertz this year, especially if you can land him in round four, and very rarely he falls to round five but i think he's still interesting there especially when you see he |
4:13.9 | goes in drafts right now as the 41st overall player. You know who goes before him in drafts overall on average? Joe Burrow currently goes as the 34th overall player. Joe Burrow has now been steamed up in a lot of leagues to the third round of fantasy drafts ahead of Jalen Hertz. And even if he doesn't, he normally goes right next to Jalen Hurts in round four in some other leagues as well. |
4:30.9 | And I think that's a massive, I mean, a crazy mistake when it comes to fantasy football. Because even in a quote unquote down year last year for Jalen Hertz, what did he do? Oh, he finished sixth overall in fantasy points per game. Oh, he scored 21 fantasy points, just like he did the year before when he was the quarterback Act 2 overall, but it was a down year, right? Because he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 23 and 22 the years before that, because he only ran for 630 yards instead of 760, like a couple years ago. But you know what was the same? Still had 14 touchdowns, right? Still commanded a bunch of touchdowns. The only difference in general for the Eagles offense, they became even more run heavy because Sequin Barclay was putting up a historic season and they were just blowing teams out in the second half in the fourth quarter. But let's not get a twist so because Jalen Hurts ceiling is still the QB1 overall in fantasy. Since 2022, as you can see from this tweet from Dynasty Dad on Twitter, he ranks first in the NFL amongst all quarterbacks and fantasy points per game rushing, almost 10 per game, third in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. That's insane. Okay, we know he's a great mobile passer or mobile runner, but also as a passer, he ranks number one in deep ball efficiency downfield since 2022, believe it or not. Okay, let's get some more stats in here. Ryan Heath, a great follow over on Twitter. Fantasy points per dropback. This is a very predictive stat for quarterbacks in general in fantasy. Okay, who's at the top of the list here? A lot of the names since 2022 you would expect. Lamar Jackson, though, is there. Jalen Hertz number two, basically neck and neck. Zero point 69 fantasy points per dropback and 0.68. Well, Lamar Jackson right now, if we're talking about fantasy football, he's currently going 22nd overall, Jalen Hertz, 41st overall. So Lamar Jackson since 2022 has virtually been for fantasy football on a per dropback basis, the same player as Jalen Hertz, but now he's going 20 picks earlier in drafts. And let's pull up that stat once again here, because let's see who's not on this list, right? The top six names, you would expect some of these names. Josh Allen, Justin Fields, thanks to his mobility, Jaden Daniels, Brock Purdy |
6:31.1 | might be a surprise to you. You know who's not on this list and he barely cracks into the top 10? Oh yeah, Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow, who currently goes ahead of Jalen Hurts and more than 50% of drafts right now. Again, I think this is a massive mistake. Because even in a season last year |
6:27.7 | where the Philadelphia Eagles just did not pass the ball, Jalen Hertz was still putting up over 21 fantasy points a game. In fact, the Eagles ranked 29th in passing yards, 32nd in passing attempts, and 31st in completions. And that led to the disappointing year for Jalen Hertz, finishing sixth overall in fantasy scoring at the quarterback position. But you know what the crazy thing is? They ran 621 times last year, 70 more than any other team. And other teams in NFL history who run at least 600 times in a year, we saw it with the 2010 Jets and the 2020 Ravens. The next season, they end up dropping off massively, right? They end up dropping off by like 70 to 100 rush attempts and pass the ball |
7:17.5 | naturally more about 50 to 60 times per game. So if you're going to tell me, or 50 to 60 times total for the year, not per game, that's like four or five times per game. If Jalen Hertz starts throwing even just three more times per game, everything's going to increase because he's still going to get those rushing touchdowns and the rushing yards. And we really should emphasize how good he is as a rusher, even in seasons when he's kind of been banged up, because people |
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