You Are Where You Came From
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 January 2021
⏱️ 16 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
It is appropriate and perhaps entirely ironic that the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe comes in a week where we have seen some of the most bizarre, insane, and silly market activity, ever, and that this bizarre, insane, and silly activity is accompanied by totally incoherent commentary from various pundits, politicians, and “pros.”
Whoever said investing was all math and science is an idiot.
But the drama of this week’s market, and even the circumstances around the big headline story of the week (which has actually morphed into a multi-faceted story), really do serve as a reinforcement of the major principles, beliefs, and applications I want to highlight in this week’s commentary. I began writing this Dividend Cafe last weekend, and had conceptualized my thesis well before the drama hit the tape into the week. And I haven’t altered that thesis or even the way I unpack it at all. To the extent some of this week’s Dividend Cafe connects dots with other news stories, great. But my purpose in this week’s commentary is not to make sense of a four-day story, but a four-decade story.
And I really hope it will help you in your journey and understanding as an investor.
I have long believed that all professional investors are irreversibly shaped by the era in which they grew up as an investor. This is more true of the lessons learned in that era that proved to be negative lessons than positive ones. Put differently, the major events that damage us in our formative years teach lessons that don’t go away easily.
I want to do a little history this week, talk a little investment biography, and ultimately, offer some lessons about my outlook on the present investing era that ought to transcend anything you will find in a chat room, on social media, or in the madness of the moment.
It’s a low bar.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.5 | Welcome to this week's Dividendin Cafe podcast video. I am actually at my apartment here in New York City because I'm getting ready to fly out. |
| 0:21.0 | And it's been a very crazy day. |
| 0:23.1 | And that might be one of the reasons that this podcast will end up being a little bit more rushed than I wanted it to be. |
| 0:28.3 | And it's definitely the reason why for the second series in a row, I had to turn the topic of this week's David and Cafe into a two-parter. |
| 0:38.5 | I had, if you recall, a few weeks ago started off on a two-part, on a series about inflation |
| 0:44.1 | versus deflation is the great macroeconomic question of our time and the most important |
| 0:49.3 | and significant issue that investors need to wrestle with as for its impact to debt and to economic |
| 0:57.7 | growth and interest rates and to the dollar and all these things. |
| 1:01.8 | And so that ended up becoming a two-parter. |
| 1:03.7 | And I was actually really happy with that. |
| 1:06.8 | The way it enabled me to kind of unpack it and then into the second part of it, I think, |
| 1:12.5 | draw the conclusions, connect the dots and the way that I want to do. |
| 1:17.0 | And what I was hoping to do this week is provide a bit of a summary as to what our investment |
| 1:24.4 | worldview is right now, given certain conditions in the world and |
| 1:30.0 | conditions in the market and why we feel the way we do, particularly around what is usually |
| 1:36.5 | described as a growth versus value debate. |
| 1:39.7 | And this invites a whole lot of issues into it around investor sentiment, around investor behavior, around history. |
| 1:52.1 | And then this week, all hell kind of broke loose in certain aspects of the market. |
| 1:56.8 | And there's become this sort of side story that I cover in other places and there's other |
| 2:03.1 | materials, you know, that we can send to you that you can find that where I've discussed |
| 2:06.5 | all that in much greater detail. But my point being, there's this broader conversation about |
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