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Guaranteed Human

Quarzo Media

Hello and welcome to Better Offline.

I'm your surly yet lovable host, Ed Zittron.

Better Offline. Today I'm on a kick off by reading something I wrote in March 24 and talked about on the episode PKK.

What if what we're seeing today isn't a glimpse of the future, but the new terms of the present?

What if artificial intelligence isn't actually capable of doing much more than what we're seeing today isn't a glimpse of the future, but the new terms of the present? What if artificial intelligence isn't actually capable of doing much more than what we're seeing today? And what if

there's no clear timeline when it will be able to do more? What if this entire hype cycle has been

built on hot air, ghost by a compliant media, ready and willing to take career embellishes at

their word? Reading that back, well, I think I might have been right. And that's kind of what I'm going to get at today. I don't want to scream mustard. I'm not going to get smug about it. But this is what we're getting into today and in the next episode that will come out on Friday. Now I'll be linking to some articles, so check the episode notes if you want to read them, but I'm going to get a lot into the spoken word.

So I warned you in February that Generative AI has no killer apps and had no way of justifying its valuations. I also warned you in March that Generative AI had already peaked, and I pleaded with the tech industry in April to consider an eventuality where the jump between GPD 4, which is the most current model,

well, GPT-4-0, to GPD 5 was not significant, in part due to a lack of training data,

one of the more obvious things.

I shared more concerns in July that the transformer-based architecture underpinning generative AI,

things like Chad GPT, was a dead end, and that there were really not many ways we'd progressed past the products we'd already seen back then, in part due to the

limits of training data, like I mentioned, and the limits of the models that use said training data.

In August, I summarised the pale horses of the AI apocalypse, events, many that have now come to

past, I'm afraid, that would signify the end,

well, being nigh, though it's not quite here yet and it's not obvious when it will be,

but this can't last forever. But I also added that GPT5 would not change the game enough to matter,

let alone add a new architecture to build future and more capable models or products of any

...