BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, podcasts.

Has the Alliance Party peaked?

Much of the narrative in recent elections here has been about how the third way or the middle ground has been on the march,

but is there some evidence now that the tide is perhaps beginning to turn?

Recent opinion polling suggests Alliance is showing signs of slipping back,

but is that just an aberration that's easily explained away, or is it an indication of what might

be coming further on down the electoral cycle? Either way, it does seem that several of the other

stormant parties are particularly keen to push back against Alliance, not least on the unionist side of the House.

I'm Mark Carruthers. That's what we're discussing in this latest Red Lions conversation and joining me to consider where Naomi Long's party goes from here.

Or the man who wrote the book on Alliance, Professor John Tong from the University of Liverpool.

Our political correspondent, Jane McCormack,

the political scientist and deputy editor of Slugger O'Toole, Dr David McCann, and the former

leader of the Alliance Party, David Ford. Welcome to all of you. Thank you for making time for us

today. John Tong, first of all, does that premise hold up in your view? Is there a possibility that Alliance has hit its high water mark in elections and the tide could be on the turn?

Yes, there is some cause for concern for Alliance.

It's true that each opinion poll fall has been comfortably within the margin of error.

Alliance is ticking down rather than crushing.

But there is clear evidence, I think,

that Alliance has, at best, plateaued.

And Alliance was the beneficiary member

of a perfect storm at the last two assembly elections,

2017 and 2022.

...