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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Yellen’s Confidence Defies Data, Logic, and Common Sense – Ep.122

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff

Business, Politics, News, Investing, Business News

4.65.9K Ratings

🗓️ 3 December 2015

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary


* The price of gold was down another $15 today, a 6-year low
* Selling began early this morning following a better than expected jobs report from ADP
* This is private payrolls released a couple of days before the official government Non-Farm Payroll number, coming out on Friday
* Last month's ADP report was 182,000 jobs, which was below expectations
* But the government reported better than expected jobs numbers
* Today's number was not significant enough to have triggered a sell-off in gold within seconds of the release of the news
* So far, ADP has missed 8 of the 12 expectations this year
* By the way, hedge funds are the most short they've ever been in gold
* We'll see what happens between now and the end of the year if we get a lot of hedge funds that want to book those profits
* Paper profits may be difficult to realize if everyone needs to take them at the same time
*  In the physical world, demand for gold continues to hit records
* 98-99% of the gold market is people selling gold they don't actually have to people who don't actually want it
* It's interesting to me the difference between the market reaction to positive economic news versus negative news
* The November PMI number, although slightly better than expected it is still a 2-year low
* Where the news went from bad to horrific was when we got the November ISM number. Manufacturing is considered insignificant now because it is a smaller part of our economy, but the last time it was almost as low as this, the Fed immediately launched QE3.
* Now with ISM number nearly as weak as it was when we launched QE1, the Fed is hinting at a rate hike, which is absurd if you believe that the Fed is data dependent.
* If the Fed does raise rates in December it proves conclusively that they were never data dependent and that they were using it as a delay tactic
*  Had the Fed raised rates years ago, it would have pushed the economy into recession that much sooner, but they've now waited so long, that the economy is already going back into a recession on its own
* If the Fed now raises rates even slightly, we will go into recession that much more quickly, causing credibility loss.
* Also, yesterday we got motor vehicle sales numbers, and we did 18.2 million, beating the expected number of 18.1 million; however this is the second or third month in a row that domestic sales have declined
* This is all a product of the auto bubble. Contrary to comparisons to the housing bubble, where people bought homes for investments, the bubble exists in automobile financing
* Also contributing to the weakness in gold, were Janet Yellen's recent statements containing the strongest indications yet that interest rates may raise in December
* She did, however, go out of her way to insist that the Fed has not made a decision, based on data coming in prior to the December meeting
* Yellen admits to improvements in the labor market, but acknowledges that there is underemployment and low labor force participation
* She did say, however, that she is confident that over the next 1-2 years, the economy will show real improvement in full employment and labor force participation
* She also believes that the economy is indicating enough momentum that inflation will also reach or exceed the 2% benchmark
* Paradoxically, economic data over the last 6 months show no such momentum
* If the manufacturing sector is already in recession, as data indicates, what makes Yellen believe that the service sector, which has shown modest growth, can sustain any growth?
* The only problem Yellen does address is overseas markets
* Ironically the worst thing that can happen to the U.S. economy is for markets to have more confidence in overseas economies, Our Sponsors: * Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me * Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com * Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai * Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Transcript

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0:00.0

Well, the price of gold was down another $15 or so today.

0:14.0

It was a new low, a new six year low.

0:17.5

I think gold sold around $1,053 an ounce.

0:22.5

The selling began early this morning following the release of a better than expected job report

0:29.1

from ADP.

0:30.1

Remember, this is private payrolls and we always get this report a couple of days before

0:36.2

we get the official government non-farm payroll number which is coming out on Friday.

0:42.3

Now, if you remember last month, they reported 182,000 jobs for ADP and that was below what

0:50.2

the estimate was.

0:51.8

But then we got the better than expected with 270, what some on 1000 jobs from the government.

0:59.0

This time, the ADP number came out at 217,000 versus expectations of 183.

1:07.0

In fact, they revised up last month 182 to 196.

1:11.8

But really, I mean, 217,000 jobs when you're expecting 183,000.

1:17.0

I mean, really not much of a big deal, especially when they're really trying to catch up because

1:22.7

this number was way below what the government estimate was.

1:25.8

And so maybe they caught up a little bit.

1:27.9

It's still significantly below, I guess, what the official government number was for the

1:34.3

month of October.

1:36.3

But it's not that big a deal for gold to have immediately sold off about $10 within

1:42.6

seconds of this report being released, this better than expected report.

1:48.4

And again, this number ADP, so far they've had eight misses this year out of all the 12

1:56.4

months of the year that we've got these ADP reports, eight of the 12 have been below

...

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