Year Behind, Year Ahead – Special 2026 White Paper – January 9, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 9 January 2026
⏱️ 62 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4qlplEM
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year.
00:00 Introduction and Annual Review Overview
01:47 Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes
06:18 Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025
10:14 Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts
12:27 Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns
17:57 Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis
25:53 Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes
30:56 China Relations: A Bold Prediction
33:42 Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag
35:14 Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme
36:27 Corporate Activity: A Record Year
38:17 Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View
40:11 Quantitative Tightening Ends
42:18 2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities
47:45 Economic Tug of War
50:06 Midterm Elections and Market Impact
51:38 Housing Market Predictions
53:11 Small Cap vs. S&P 500
53:51 Foreign Appetite for US Assets
54:43 Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity
55:47 Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook
56:19 Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Well, hello, happy new year. |
| 0:14.4 | Welcome to the Dividendin Cafe, our first Friday Dividendon Cafe at 26, where we are going to jump right into our annual year |
| 0:22.8 | behind, year ahead special. We're going to do an extensive review of everything that was |
| 0:29.0 | 2025. We're going to do a report card on ourselves, the themes we set for 2025, and how those |
| 0:36.9 | actually played out. And then we're going to set some themes, |
| 0:41.5 | forecast perspectives for 2026, give you our preview of the year ahead. This has become an annual |
| 0:48.1 | tradition at the Bonson Group. I actually debate how many years we've done it because it started |
| 0:53.9 | back at Morgan Stanley |
| 0:55.7 | and I just don't have the records and can't remember exactly the very first year. |
| 1:00.5 | But it's somewhere between 13 and 15 years now that we've been doing this. |
| 1:04.9 | And the goal is to give you a really comprehensive assessment of what just was, |
| 1:12.9 | but give you something actionable, |
| 1:19.2 | something contemplative, something useful as we think about the year ahead. I'm going to cut the introduction there because I know I can ramble on and on and we have so much to go through, |
| 1:23.1 | but this is going to be a very fun dividend cafe. I am actually, literally, I'm not going to read |
| 1:29.8 | from the white paper itself, but I'm sitting here holding the actual paper, and I'm going to try |
| 1:35.0 | my best to go through so that those of you that are listening on the podcast are watching the |
| 1:39.8 | video are going to get the same information that everybody gets by reading the PDF of the white paper. |
| 1:47.2 | Now, of course, the charts and things will be up on the screen as much as possible as I go through |
| 1:51.6 | for those of you watching the video. |
| 1:53.5 | But let's get right into it and see if you can't get the same experience listening as I intended |
... |
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