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The Dividend Cafe

Year Behind, Year Ahead – Special 2026 White Paper – January 9, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Wealth Management, Estate Planning, Macro Economics, Retirement Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Investing

4.9569 Ratings

🗓️ 9 January 2026

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4qlplEM

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year.

00:00 Introduction and Annual Review Overview

01:47 Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes

06:18 Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025

10:14 Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts

12:27 Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns

17:57 Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis

25:53 Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes

30:56 China Relations: A Bold Prediction

33:42 Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag

35:14 Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme

36:27 Corporate Activity: A Record Year

38:17 Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View

40:11 Quantitative Tightening Ends

42:18 2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities

47:45 Economic Tug of War

50:06 Midterm Elections and Market Impact

51:38 Housing Market Predictions

53:11 Small Cap vs. S&P 500

53:51 Foreign Appetite for US Assets

54:43 Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity

55:47 Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook

56:19 Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio

0:06.5

and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.2

Well, hello, happy new year.

0:14.4

Welcome to the Dividendin Cafe, our first Friday Dividendon Cafe at 26, where we are going to jump right into our annual year

0:22.8

behind, year ahead special. We're going to do an extensive review of everything that was

0:29.0

2025. We're going to do a report card on ourselves, the themes we set for 2025, and how those

0:36.9

actually played out. And then we're going to set some themes,

0:41.5

forecast perspectives for 2026, give you our preview of the year ahead. This has become an annual

0:48.1

tradition at the Bonson Group. I actually debate how many years we've done it because it started

0:53.9

back at Morgan Stanley

0:55.7

and I just don't have the records and can't remember exactly the very first year.

1:00.5

But it's somewhere between 13 and 15 years now that we've been doing this.

1:04.9

And the goal is to give you a really comprehensive assessment of what just was,

1:12.9

but give you something actionable,

1:19.2

something contemplative, something useful as we think about the year ahead. I'm going to cut the introduction there because I know I can ramble on and on and we have so much to go through,

1:23.1

but this is going to be a very fun dividend cafe. I am actually, literally, I'm not going to read

1:29.8

from the white paper itself, but I'm sitting here holding the actual paper, and I'm going to try

1:35.0

my best to go through so that those of you that are listening on the podcast are watching the

1:39.8

video are going to get the same information that everybody gets by reading the PDF of the white paper.

1:47.2

Now, of course, the charts and things will be up on the screen as much as possible as I go through

1:51.6

for those of you watching the video.

1:53.5

But let's get right into it and see if you can't get the same experience listening as I intended

...

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