YBYB - LOCKMAS: SEC Win Totals (Pt. 3)
You Better You Bet
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🗓️ 15 August 2023
⏱️ 16 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Our beds for tonight are on the way for now till you eight buckets slash lockness. Oh, can we wrap up the schedule analysis for Alabama in the last segment? |
| 0:08.3 | We'll pull a new team out of the bucket coming up in a moment here, but how do we want to wrap this up? Any bets to be made here on the Alabama Crimson Tide based off our running through the schedule in the last segment? |
| 0:18.5 | Yeah, so I think kind of what we can figure out here is, you know, talk about schedule flexibility. Like how many games are really in play with the team schedule? |
| 0:26.0 | We just happened to pick the team first. That's like a juggernaut and and they don't have that many games that are in play. We'll do some teams where it seems like every game is in play in terms of a potential winner, a potential loss. |
| 0:35.6 | So I mean, Alabama will only play essentially like one toss up depending on whether the LSU or the Texas game closes seven or less than seven. Maybe they both do. |
| 0:45.8 | I probably whether they lose one might have an impact on whether the other closes seven or less. Obviously, it was to Texas. |
| 0:51.1 | Maybe the LSU spread is less. It's also quite possible that they'll play no games in which they're like less than a less than seven point favorite of action comes in on them against Texas. |
| 1:00.2 | And they basically roll out of they roll out of that eight know essentially. Depending on how you feel about Kentucky this year, it's a massive difference between those teams or how you feel about Tennessee. |
| 1:09.9 | Maybe that kind of changes how you project Alabama, but I think it's like pretty likely it's eight know and four games decide their season. |
| 1:16.0 | And they'll be a favorite in all four. Maybe a touchdown or more favorite in all four. So now we can do a couple subjective things with Alabama. |
| 1:21.8 | So my the raw projection for their wins using my projected point spreads is a 10.4 is my number. And the market for Alabama's wind total is essentially teetering between two numbers or back and forth between two numbers. |
| 1:35.9 | Some sports books like MGM are dealing you a 10 juiced over and some sports books elsewhere are dealing you a 10 and a half juiced way under like minus 180 minus 190. |
| 1:45.9 | And a couple places. So it's kind of like depending on which side you like, maybe one of that one. So the other obviously with Alabama. And like I said, only like four games probably decide their season. |
| 1:54.9 | There's a really big difference between a 10 and a 10 and a half when you're playing like a four game season. The market reflects that there's a big like I mean, you know, $1.30 between in price difference between those two numbers. |
| 2:04.8 | My opinion and we're beginning to subjective. Alabama's wind total is depressed this year for a couple reasons. One is the teams on their schedule. |
| 2:13.0 | They play a big time non-conference game. Those don't always happen. Sometimes they play a big non-conference game where there are five touchdown favorite. But they play Texas. So that depresses their win total LSU supposed to be really good. |
| 2:23.0 | They're on the schedule. Tennessee is not always a game that's crossover. They're supposed to be really good. And Texas A&M kind of up in the air. But there's like more potential landmines than you sometimes find. |
| 2:33.0 | Also though I do think there's depression to Alabama's wind total because of what happened last year. They have the number one overall pick in the draft. They still only won 10 games. He got hurt. |
| 2:41.0 | I think there's also kind of like a reputation that Alabama skill position players are not very good. They had Jameer Gibbs last year and the kind of perception is like that's kind of all they had. |
| 2:51.0 | And you know, they didn't have like seven number one ride receivers like they've had before. And so I do actually think 10 is going to end up being a bet for me on the over for Alabama. |
| 3:00.0 | The one reason I haven't bet it yet is I don't think the mark. Well, first of all, I don't leave the markets moving really on Alabama at all. But I don't think it's going to move hard up on them. |
| 3:08.0 | They have not named a quarterback yet to start the opener. They have three quarterbacks in camp that are competing. I think Jalen Milro will end up being the starter. You played a little bit last year when Bryce Young got her. |
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