All right, welcome back, Jeremy Khan. Ken Barkley here with you. Would you better you bet right here on the BQL network. Now, Ken, we're going to get the Super Bowl picks and got to talk a little bit about this. And a lot of times I always say this. And I don't

know if you feel the same way trying to find value in a team that you think can win or is this something where you're looking like, hey, I think this team's going to win.

Bet it because I always do it convert like I look at the lines. I'm I'm going to take somebody that's 16 to 40 to 1 to win this just because that's how I always look at it. How do you look at

the future for Super Bowl? Well, it's funny because I think I ended up with someone in the 16 to 40. So I guess I'm supposed to just say why did the same thing you did and took the same team. Yeah, I mean, it's just it's really tough.

Maybe I maybe other people disagree. I think Super Bowl is such a tough market to bet into because I just I used to think that the market had a ton of I used to think the sport had a ton of parity.

When I watched a lot and didn't bet a lot, I thought like, man, all these random things happen all the time is seemingly seemingly random things happen all the time and champion like who knows and the sport markets itself to us so strongly as like everybody has a chance to win, right?

That's supposed to be different than every other sports, one of the things supposed to make the NFL unique except the more that I bet and just new stuff and looked up things.

The more I was like, oh, actually, it's like really has almost no parity at all. Actually, it's like one of the least parity filled champions.

I mean, baseball has more parity than the sport does in a lot of ways. NBA probably doesn't. NBA is probably one of the few sports where it's like, no, it's actually even more top.

Maybe then this hockey has more parity. The NCAA basketball tournament has more parity. College football doesn't probably has the least parity of every sport.

But, you know, the NFL finds itself much more in the middle than I thought. And I said, said this trend a lot, but this is the simplest way to explain what I mean when I say it doesn't have a lot of parity.

I'm going to do this for a third time just because I it'll guide the my answer for this for the favorite Super Bowl, but football outsiders had a metric called DVOA because the founder doesn't work there anymore.

But in, you know, had this DVOA metric, which a lot of people use as a team quality rating offense defense and overall.

And since the Patriots cheated to win a Super Bowl 20 years ago, every single team sense them was top seven and either offense or defense the year before they won the Super Bowl.

So there was a very predictive quality to being good at being an NFL team the year before and then winning.

They didn't go from being awful on both sides of the ball or even average on both sides of the ball or even top 10 on both sides like on one side of the ball.

You didn't go from that to win. You had to be like, you could have been awesome at both. That's fine. You had to at least be really good at one the year before.

And then hypothetically, you would fix the part of the team that was not as good. And that part that you were good at would stay the same. And then you would go into the season and win.

So really some examples of that Rams, great defense, but Jared golf is the quarterback, swap Stafford for golf. Defense stays great. You win the Super Bowl.

Tampa, great defense with a ton of up and coming talent offense miserable. Get rid of James spring and Tom Brady, you win the Super Bowl the next year.

Like these were two really recent examples. The chiefs, they were just awesome at offense anyway. And then they got even better somehow and the defense got to average. So like they're, they're pretty easy to understand what to they have the best player in the league.

So like, okay, are there teams that like fit this description where it's like, well, they were really good at this. And on the other side, but I think they could make a big improvement.

...