WS More or Less: Brexit Economics
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 24 June 2016
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Following a referendum, the UK has voted to leave the European Union. Tim Harford and the team explore what that might mean for the UK’s economy. Most notably - what might be the impact on trade? We examine the economic forecasts from the government, and how the UK might manage its relationships with other countries.
(Image: A pay-per-view binocular with the British and European Union flags. Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This download is of the BBC World Service version of more or less first broadcast on the 24th of June 2016. |
| 0:09.0 | If you have been listening to our radio for Brexit Special Programs, you will have heard this material before. |
| 0:16.3 | Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service. |
| 0:20.1 | We're the program which brings you the numbers in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Harford. |
| 0:25.0 | This week the UK electorate voted to leave the European Union in a referendum after being a member for more than 40 years. |
| 0:33.0 | It's too early to know quite what happens next, |
| 0:36.0 | but we do know there will be a new Prime Minister in place |
| 0:39.0 | to take the process forward of breaking from the Union of 27 other countries. |
| 0:44.0 | What will this mean for the UK's economy? |
| 0:47.0 | In the months running up to the vote, |
| 0:49.0 | both sides of the debate produced economic forecasts as to the impact of Brexit. Where do these |
| 0:56.1 | forecasts come from? From economic models. These are sets of equations that try to |
| 1:01.6 | simulate how the economy works. |
| 1:04.2 | Some are simple and some are complex. |
| 1:06.6 | Some rely heavily on theory, while others lean more on data about economic history. |
| 1:12.2 | The most reported on model of course came from the UK |
| 1:15.7 | Treasury which produced some very big scary numbers. In the long run GDP would be |
| 1:21.9 | over 6% smaller and Britain would be worse off by 4,300 |
| 1:26.7 | per household. |
| 1:28.9 | Let's deal with those numbers. |
| 1:31.6 | In the long run GDP is forecast to be 6% smaller in 15 years time than if the UK had |
| 1:38.0 | voted to remain. |
... |
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