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Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Wrong Tools Cost Lives

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Pushkin Industries

History, Society & Culture

4.76.4K Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2021

⏱️ 34 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The British Government promised to create a "world-beating" system to track deadly Covid 19 infections - but it included an outdated version of the off-the-shelf spreadsheet software Microsoft Excel. The result was disastrous.

When under pressure or lacking in expertise we can all be tempted to use a tool unsuitable for the job in hand. But whether fitting shelves or trying to halt a pandemic, we need to accept that cutting corners comes at a cost.

Read more about Tim's work at http://timharford.com/

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Pushkin.

0:07.0

We will have a test, track and trace operation that will be world-leading.

0:19.0

That's Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, speaking to Parliament with a typical

0:29.8

jingoistic flourish in May 2020.

0:32.8

The UK, he promised, would have a world-beating contact tracing system within a few days.

0:39.8

The first wave of the pandemic was slowly receding, but the cost had been brutal.

0:46.2

That spring, the country had suffered one of the deadliest outbreaks of Covid anywhere

0:51.7

in the world, and so the British Prime Minister decided to cheer up the nation as only

0:57.0

he could, by boasting of a contact tracing system that would be better than anything Johnny

1:02.7

Foriner would have.

1:06.0

A contact tracing system for Covid has three key elements.

1:10.3

First, you need to be able to identify who is infected and isolate them.

1:15.6

Then, you need to trace the recent contacts of the infected person.

1:20.1

Finally, you need to be able to persuade those contacts to isolate themselves as well to

1:25.4

avoid any further spread.

1:27.4

It's not easy.

1:29.9

But if you get it right, you can keep the virus contained, while allowing everyone else

1:35.0

to relax a little and go about their lives.

1:37.9

Taiwan managed this, so did South Korea, and Vietnam, and Japan.

1:43.8

Anyway, the UK system didn't need to beat the world, just needed to beat the virus.

1:50.3

In the summer of 2020, there seemed to be every chance of doing that.

1:56.6

Infections had been beaten back by a long, strict, and costly lockdown.

...

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