Would you bet on the next disaster? The rise of prediction markets
The Take
Al Jazeera
4.7 • 748 Ratings
🗓️ 4 May 2026
⏱️ 24 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Is the rise of prediction markets unstoppable? Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi have boomed and so have the controversies that surround them. US Senators are now banned from using such sites, and a US soldier has been charged over bets placed on the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. How is it already changing our reality?
In this episode:
- Bobby Allyn (@BobbyAllyn), NPR Tech Correspondent
Episode credits:
This episode was produced by Chloe K. Li and Noor Wazwaz with Spencer Cline, Marcos Bartolome, Catherine Nouhan, and our guest host, Tamara Khandaker. It was edited by Alexandra Locke. Alex Roldan is our sound designer.
The Take production team is Marcos Bartolomé, Sonia Bhagat, Spencer Cline, Sarí el-Khalili, Tamara Khandaker, Chloe K. Li, Alexandra Locke, Catherine Nouhan, Alex Roldan, and Noor Wazwaz. Our host is Malika Bilal.
Our editorial intern is Tuleen Barakat. Our engagement producers are Adam Abou-Gad and Vienna Maglio. Andrew Greiner is lead of audience engagement. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take’s executive producer.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Al Jazeera Podcasts. |
| 0:07.0 | Today, if you could make money predicting the next war, would you do it? |
| 0:17.0 | People making a lot of money on this is, to me, the least interesting part. |
| 0:20.7 | The way that this is changing reality, I think, is really fascinating and kind of disturbing. |
| 0:27.0 | Prediction markets are booming, letting people bet on everything from the next best picture |
| 0:31.8 | winner to the possibility of war. What happens when people have money riding on the worst thing happening? |
| 0:40.3 | I'm Tamara Kondokar, and this is The Take. |
| 0:49.0 | Before we continue with today's show, we want to hear what you think of this episode. |
| 0:55.3 | Should people be able to bet on real-world events like elections, wars, and political violence? |
| 1:00.9 | How do you feel about the rise of prediction markets? |
| 1:03.3 | Let us know. |
| 1:04.5 | And on your podcast app, leave us a review, telling us where you're listening from, and give us a five-star rating while you're there. |
| 1:10.6 | It helps the show. |
| 1:13.9 | I'm Bobby Allen. |
| 1:14.9 | I'm a correspondent for National Public Radio, and I cover the tech industry, and I'm based in Los Angeles. |
| 1:20.4 | Bobby Allen, welcome back to The Take. |
| 1:22.7 | I'm really, really excited to talk to you about something that's not Elon Musk, because I think |
| 1:27.9 | that's what you were here to talk about last time. I've interviewed you about him, and we're finally |
| 1:32.8 | not talking about him today, but I think what we are talking about is something that feels |
| 1:38.3 | kind of spiritually adjacent. Yeah, definitely in some ways. I took a bit of a pivot to |
| 1:43.5 | plunge into the world of prediction markets, |
| 1:45.7 | so here I am. Okay, so we're here to talk about the rise of prediction markets like |
... |
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