This is More or Less, a slice of statistical lemon in the pleasant but confusing

gin and tonic of media reporting. The programme now airs year-round on the world's service,

but this is a full length episode from BBC Radio 4.

Hello and welcome to More or Less, bearing an Olympic-sized torch for numeracy in the news.

This week I ask whether it's more likely that I'm cheating on my wife or that my wife is

cheating on me, although presumably I should know something about at least one side of that equation.

And we'll confess to our own statistical crime and the thousand yard stare of the

Lord High Executioner of Statistical Malpractice, Ben Goldacre. But first, the leaked

B-croft report has been stirring up controversy all week. It's a series of proposals for reforming

employment law with the aim of boosting growth, written by venture capitalist Adrian B-croft.

And there's been quite a fuss. Here's a tape of some men shouting at each other.

The business secretary says it is the last thing government should do. Who does the Prime Minister

agree with? But we need to make it easier for businesses to grow, for businesses to take people on,

the report was criticised by the business secretary Vince Cable, who didn't like the proposal

to allow employers to fire their employees at will. Mr B-croft in turn accused Mr Cable of being

a socialist. I should declare an interest here, I briefly worked for Vince Cable a long time ago

when he was preaching his socialism as the chief economist of a major multinational oil company.

Enjoyable as this personality politics is, what really interests us is the data. The logic is

pretty clear on both sides here, if employers are able to sack workers at will, they might do just

that. On the other hand, if employers are able to sack workers at will, they might be much

happier to hire them and give them a chance. But beyond laying out the theoretical argument,

what's the evidence that employers should be able to fire their staff at will and come to think of

...