Would A Prediction Market Limit the Fed?
Cato Podcast
Cato Institute
4.5 • 979 Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2016
⏱️ 15 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Monday, May 23rd, 2016. |
| 0:07.0 | I'm Caleb Brown. |
| 0:08.6 | Nominal GDP targeting would, some economists hope, rain in some of the feds currently unmoored discretion |
| 0:15.1 | David Beckworth is one of those economists he's a former Treasury official and a |
| 0:19.6 | professor of economics at Western Kentucky University, we spoke last week. |
| 0:26.3 | Scott Sumner, one of your colleagues has argued vociferously and I think Tyler Cowan |
| 0:32.0 | is sort of on board in terms of Mercatus folks who are on the |
| 0:37.6 | bandwagon of nominal GDP targeting and part of the argument for that |
| 0:45.3 | is that market expectations |
| 0:49.2 | will play an outsized role in what those inGB targets actually are? |
| 0:55.0 | Yes, the target would actually be set by the Fed, |
| 0:59.0 | but it would be operationalized by what the market thought was happening in terms of growth going forward. |
| 1:06.2 | So at the Federal Reserve set a nominal GDP target at 5%, it would issue futures contracts where it would trade at a certain price where it hoped nominal GDP would go and based on that if the market thought, for example, |
| 1:22.6 | that nominal GDP, which is just another way of saying, |
| 1:25.6 | total dollar spending, if it was going to be below target, |
| 1:29.3 | then the Fed would be creating more money through those targets automatically |
| 1:34.8 | people would be selling to the Fed and the Fed would be buying them and |
| 1:39.4 | injecting money to the economy and that would increase the amount of monetary base |
| 1:43.7 | and fuel and increase in spending until it got to the target. |
| 1:46.5 | And then vice versa, if it was above, |
| 1:47.9 | it would be pulling money out through these future contracts. |
| 1:50.9 | But the key point of it is that market participants would instigate the buying |
... |
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