Won’t Get Fooled Again & A Conversation With Bethany McLean

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6 • 757 Ratings

🗓️ 17 February 2023

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses are asking themselves if they’ll get fooled again (1:00). Never underestimate the U.S. consumer’s desire to spend money (7:00). Escalations with China continue to threaten the economy (9:30). Headlines and technicals aren’t looking great for Tesla (13:45). Is the market finally starting to get sharper (20:30)? The AI Wars are having an impact on margins for Microsoft and Google (23:30). Something wonky is going on in the Japanese bond market (28:05). Bitcoin continues to rally despite no Fed pivot in sight (30:15). After the break, Bethany McLean joins the pod to discuss the folly of “experts” and non-economists running the Fed (36:15). The Venn Diagram of Fraudsters and visionaries (58:45). Do you really want to be a contrarian and surround yourself with conflicting ideas (60:15)? A Conversation With Bing’s Chatbot Left Me Deeply Unsettled: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-microsoft-chatgpt.html Check out our show notes here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. ---- Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We’re on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

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0:00.0	In August of 1971, I was seven years old and the great band, The Who released their fifth studio album, Who's Next?
0:14.0	I'm going to read you a lyric because this has been resonating in my mind for quite some time.
0:18.1	By the way, you're listening to the On the Tape podcast. I'm Guy Adami,
0:22.6	always joined by Danny Moses and Dan Nathan. And oh, by the way, Danny and I sat down with best-selling
0:29.2	author Bethany McLean for a little off-the-tape segment. We'll be fighting in the streets
0:35.1	with our children at our feet. And the morals that they worship
0:39.4	will be gone. And the men who spurred us on sit in judgment of all wrong. They decide.
0:46.8	And the shotgun sings the song. The first lyrics from Won't Get Fooled Again. And I will tell you folks and Danny and Dan, the last week
0:57.1	has got me to a point where I see what's going on. And I was fooled once, but I'm certainly
1:03.4	not going to get fooled again because the data that continues to come out, the PPI number
1:08.8	we saw earlier this week, the CPI number, the numbers we're
1:13.1	seeing on the jobs front, all suggest to me that this inflation that everybody seems to think
1:18.9	is under control is anything but. And for you naysayers out there to think the Fed is going to
1:24.0	stick this landing, Kerry strug this landing. Think again, folks. I will say this.
1:29.9	So what's different than what I thought it was going to be? I thought two things. The economy would
1:35.0	be showing signs of, quote, more slowing. It fits and starts. And I would have thought that inflation
1:40.9	would be abating a little bit more. So let's say I'm slightly wrong on both of those.
1:45.7	It doesn't change the bearish thesis on the market. If anything, it potentially sucks people
1:50.1	and it makes it a little bit worse because I'm looking right now. In one week, the Fed's probability
1:55.4	has gone from 9 to 15 percent of raising rates 50 basis points at their next meeting. And actually a month ago,
2:02.6	at the end of the year, the odds of the Fed funds being 525 to 550 have raised now literally
2:09.2	from nothing to 23 percent. And so we've seen major shifts here in the Fed Fund futures.
	...

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