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The Breakdown

With Latest CPI, the Fed Hiking Cycle Finally Appears Over

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2023

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Before today's CPI numbers were released, markets were pricing in a 14% chance of one more rate hike. After the numbers were released, that number plummeted to zero. NLW catches up on the macro. Today's Sponsor: Kraken Kraken: See what crypto can be - https://kraken.com/TheBreakdown Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.0

It's a daily podcast on Macro, Bitcoin, and the Big Picture Power Shifts remaking our world.

0:19.0

What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, November 14th, and today we are talking CPI and macro.

0:24.7

Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it,

0:28.3

give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

0:31.7

come join us on the breakers discord. You can find a link of the show notes or go to bit.ly slash

0:35.7

breakdown pod. Well, friends, like I said, today we are shifting our coverage from just never-ending bullish

0:41.2

shifts in sentiment to a macro conversation. It has been a while, and I want to use the occasion

0:46.6

of the CPI results to check in on how things are going from a larger perspective.

0:51.4

Now, one interesting thing to note around this month's CPI is, frankly, the

0:56.1

lack of coverage. There are very few articles in the lead-up compared to when inflation was still

1:01.0

high and volatile. Even over the last few months, it was easy to work up a, does this CPI print

1:05.6

mean the Fed is done type of article? But this time around, there just wasn't a lot of interesting

1:09.5

speculation to be had ahead of

1:11.0

the print. One might take this as a good sign, foreshadowing a return to the world where CPI

1:16.2

prints and Fed meetings aren't the most notable economic event of the entire calendar month.

1:20.9

So, among those who were paying attention, though, what were the predictions?

1:25.0

Analysts had by and large thought that this morning CPI print would show the

1:28.2

continued steady decline of inflation. Headline inflation for October was forecast to cool to 3.3%

1:34.0

annualized, with a monthly increase of just 0.1%. September CPI showed a 0.4% monthly increase

1:40.4

and the 3.7% annualized rate of inflation, so these predictions would mark another

1:44.3

significant decline if they were to come true. Now, after bottoming at 3% in June,

...

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