Will the Fed Thread the Needle? with Itay Vinik
Bankless
Bankless
4.7 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 5 April 2023
⏱️ 72 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Itay Vinik is the Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, an alternative investment platform that brings investment strategies to accredited investors.
Today, Itay returns to the pod to answer the question: can the Fed thread the needle between inflation and recession?
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Topics Covered
0:00 Intro
6:00 Itay Returns
8:00 Reflecting on 2022
12:04 Equi Portfolio
15:35 Threading the Needle
19:10 Destroying Wealth
26:45 Accelerating Chaos
29:10 Inflation and Monetary Supply
38:30 The Fed is Bleeding
43:30 Small Cap Stocks
46:00 Will the Fed Pivot?
55:14 Economic Recession
1:01:14 Recession Indicators
1:02:59 Hopium
1:06:24 The US Banking System
1:09:44 How to Analyze the Economy
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Resources:
Itay Vinik
https://twitter.com/VinikItay?s=20
Links to our recent macro series
https://youtu.be/pP_HHE0kFhA
https://youtu.be/E8lxrsF29u0
https://youtu.be/-DzY_pCFGbI.
https://youtube.com/live/eregdZPLYjg.
https://youtu.be/5sNCrPAwt6w
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Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | We are asking the question, can the Fed thread the needle, can the Fed thread the needle |
| 0:14.9 | between inflation and a recession? |
| 0:18.5 | We've been going on this world tour of macro, it started with the banking crisis, the |
| 0:22.9 | biology bit signal followed by Arthur Hayes, Ben Hunt, and finally Jim Bianco. |
| 0:27.8 | So Bank of the Station, wow, this is a macro episode. |
| 0:30.6 | The conversation here today is not a part of that macro world tour. |
| 0:34.9 | Today, we are bringing back on ETA Venik. |
| 0:37.9 | We've had him on once before, he is coming equipped with a mass of graphics, slides, charts |
| 0:43.7 | to walk us through an extremely thorough audit of the U.S. economy, the banking sector, |
| 0:49.1 | the equity's market, risk assets, and interest rates and inflation, all in the hopes of |
| 0:53.8 | answering, can the Fed thread the needle between decreasing inflation while not triggering |
| 0:59.1 | a recession? |
| 1:00.1 | So just a snapshot this, we have core inflation that is yet to turn over, that thing is |
| 1:04.9 | still up and to the right, we have consumer health running on fumes, and we have a federal |
| 1:09.6 | reserve that is still increasing interest rates in the face of a banking crisis. |
| 1:14.3 | ETAI thinks the next three months are critical to seeing what happens next in global markets |
| 1:19.5 | everywhere, and he's going to walk us through all of the data to help us understand this |
| 1:23.1 | picture. |
| 1:24.1 | Bankless Nation, this is a very, very visual, heavy podcast, so if you have the luxury |
| 1:29.2 | of watching this video on YouTube or on Spotify, this would be one of those episodes to do |
| 1:33.4 | that. |
| 1:34.4 | Although I do my best to articulate the charts and the vibe along the way for all the |
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