Will the Fed Rescue the Stock Market? – Ep. 105
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 25 August 2015
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books
* The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever
* When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally
* Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871
* Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 handle
* All of these drops are being blamed by the media on China
* The Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date
* After today's drop, the Chinese market was down less than 1%
* This is not all about falling Chinese stocks
* It's the Fed - Everybody believes the Fed is going to end the party
* As we got closer to September, the stock market was already going down
* I've said all along that the Fed was bluffing - it is a game of chicken
* Finally, today, Barclay's is predicting a Fed rate hike in March of 2016
* I think the Fed will launch QE4 before we get to a rate hike in March 2016, which is an election year
* The media wants to blame the correction on China, as if there are no domestic problems to worry about
* China should be blaming it on us - we're the ones who got the world hooked on zero percent interest rates
* The fantasy was that we could raise rates without an impact on the economy
* The falling stock market is going to have an impact on the real economy
* The economy is weak and getting weaker
* This correction will turn into a full-fledged bear market unless we get some official statement from the Fed that they will not raise rates
* That may come later this week in Jackson Hole
* I am going to be in Jackson Hole at an anti-Fed conference
* Here's an example of how ridiculous the "Blame China" rhetoric is:
* Maria Bartoromo was talking about the market decline with respect to the China currency devaluation
* She actually said that by devaluing the Yuan, Chinese made products will be more competitive against American-made products
* America does not produce products that compete with Chinese products!
* She's grasping at straws to connect the stock market correction with the Chinese Yuan devaluation
* Right now it is positive for America if we can purchase Chinese products more cheaply because we're buying them anyway
* Eventually, however, Chinese products will get more expensive when the yuan goes up
* She's just trying to fit the narrative because that's what makes everybody feel comfortable
* That's why I am not on CNBC and CNN - they realize my comments do not support their editorial policy
* I am not talking about Armageddon for the markets - I am talking about the Fed saving the day
* I don't think the market is going to crash, but I believe it will go down until the Fed cries "Uncle" and prop up the equities markets with another round of QE
* The Federal Reserve did not solve our problems in 2008 - they interrupted the crisis with QE and zero percent interest rates
* That crisis would have solved the problem but we kicked the can down the road and we finally caught up to that can
* We are resuming the financial crisis that the Fed interrupted from a much deeper hole
* Had the Fed raised rates two years ago, we would have been in recession sooner
* They should have allowed the markets to solve the problems they caused
* Now we have more debt than ever before
* I have also been talking about the developments in the foreign exchange markets
* The dollar has been strong because rate hikes were expected
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Well, it wasn't a black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books. |
| 0:17.7 | The Dow was down just over 1,000 points right out of the open. |
| 0:23.4 | That was the biggest intraday point drop ever surpassing the last flash crash. |
| 0:31.7 | Now when the market opened down that low, a lot of the bargain hunters came in, day traders |
| 0:38.5 | looking to make a quick buck. |
| 0:40.7 | And we did have a rather spectacular rally. |
| 0:43.6 | I think the Dow Jones almost got into positive territory before surrendering those gains and |
| 0:50.2 | ending the day down 588 points. |
| 0:54.5 | Another 3.5% drop we closed at 15,871, taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after |
| 1:03.1 | taking out the 17,000 handle. |
| 1:05.5 | Remember, the record high is above 18,000. |
| 1:09.6 | So the Dow dropped 588 points on Monday following what a 530 point drop on Friday and a 350 point |
| 1:19.1 | drop on Thursday. |
| 1:21.6 | Of course, all of this is being blamed by the media on China. |
| 1:27.4 | Now the Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date. |
| 1:32.9 | The Chinese market is not even down 1%, it's down about 0.75% on the year. |
| 1:40.9 | In fact, until yesterday, last night's drop of about 8%, which was a big drop. |
| 1:47.1 | But until last night's drop, the Shanghai market was still positive on the year. |
| 1:53.4 | So this is not all about China. |
| 1:55.5 | Yes, Chinese stocks are falling, but stocks are falling all over the world. |
| 2:00.1 | They're falling in the emerging markets, they're falling in the developed markets, and they're |
| 2:04.0 | falling in the United States. |
... |
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