Lately, Bitcoin is almost perfectly correlating with like the software stock indices.

Really no way around it. There's just not been a lot of retail demand for Bitcoin this cycle.

I'm pretty bearish on the broader crypto space structurally.

And I think if anything, they are weighing on kind of the quote unquote brand of Bitcoin.

That's going to weigh it down probably for a period of time.

There's still something like a trillion dollars in crypto market cap that I think is overvalued. I always think of you as the rational person

who uses data to understand what is happening. We've been talking for three days now about what is

going on in the market. Maybe we start with the macro stuff. It feels like it is very confusing.

There was a lot of concern about inflation. Now there's talk of deflation. I think that a lot of people over the last 15 years, at some point it clicked. If they print money, inflation shows up. They seem to be going back to QE. They're lowering rates. Data is saying that inflation is going down, though. That shouldn't be happening. How do you just evaluate just evaluate you know what is the regime we're in and what's really going on well i think in recent times the the changes we're seeing with the balance sheet and rate cuts um that's not fueling inflation because it doesn't really fuel money supply growth uh even things like tariffs um they're not particularly inflation in the broad sense because they're not impacting the money supply.

They can just around the margins show up.

You know, they can obviously increase the price of one thing.

They can also reduce the demand and therefore reduce the price of other things.

So it's kind of shifts things around.

I think right now we're in a transitional phase in macro, which is we're exiting balance sheet reduction, going toward balance sheet increases, but the numbers are not large.

That this isn't, you know, COVID printing that people think of now when they think of QA.

It's more of a steady state.

And then we're also in this, because we're in a period of fiscal dominance, a lot of the traditional metrics just work differently now.

We have these larger average fiscal deficits, which injects capital constantly and apart to the economy.

So senior spending, basically anyone who's on the receiving side of the deficit.

So the defense department, all the contractors there, the healthcare system, social security spending, that's where the capital is going into the economy.

And, of course, other parts are squeezed.

So we're in this, like, holding pattern.

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