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Welcome to the real vision daily briefing. It's Tuesday March 8th 2022. I'm Warren Pies founder of 314 research. I'm joined today by Tony

Greer of tg macro in the editor of the morning navigator Tony. How are you doing today? I'm great Warren trying to try to keep track but

doing just fine. How are you doing? I'm good this first day for me doing the daily briefing and it's one of those fun first days trial by fire you know. The the quote that came to mind today for me watching market action is there are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen by

Lenin. It feels like today was a month jammed into a trading session. So looks like we're closing a little bit above the lows but still 100 points off the highs we saw. The big story I saw today was the Zalinsky press conference basically arguing that Ukraine didn't have to become part of NATO and that was a big concession. It felt like that's what the market was trading off of. I thought

we could start there and get your impressions of that and more importantly how the market traded around with that news. Yeah well I tell you

weren't it's a good good question and it seems like the Ukraine story that that Ukraine headline was relevant in that it probably I don't know maybe maybe it kind of neutralized the situation just a little bit you know and it was it was a move back toward I mean I feel like it could have been a step off of volatility and

it didn't really pan out that way. I don't think you know that I'm trying to just look at the markets and the markets are still very much in shock today from having been recently shoved into the next dimension.

In terms of price and magnitude you know we're seeing things happen that are we're seeing consecutive multi sigma break away rallies to new highs right across jet fuel heating oil.

We've got gold breaking out now nickel is gone they put the LME gone fishing sign up because they had whole telemetreating you know and so you know this is where the Bloomberg commodity sector has begun trading like a meme stock and I don't

know if people understand how serious this is and how long this could go on because the duration to me seems permanent like we're breaking through to a new paradigm at some level trying

to handle all of these commodities simultaneously going berserk because that's something that I haven't seen before.

Yeah I mean I would totally agree with you about the new paradigm I think the canary in the coal mine today was oil and so you know even though we had this announcement and there was a bit of a risk off the kind of risk on bid and maybe some short covering honestly when we got that announcement but oil still didn't give back the gains that we've seen

and so I think that's two things number one you know the the announcement is not it's a good step but it doesn't get us towards a resolution of the conflict has been driving markets here and I think more importantly we've jumped off a cliff with the sanctions and the moves we've made globally that we can't go back we can't go back to just two weeks ago that was a dividing line for history

and I think that's what the price of oil was telling us and so maybe that's a good good place for us to dig in and you know it's first time for me over here talking to you so what is your view just from the intraday on oil and then maybe broadened out where you seem to grow markets.

You know let's let's do that exactly one because the thing that I've been the dynamic that I've been jumping on as a as a price performance and price action junkie is that you know a lot of the time

the intraday rotation now in this year especially the intraday rotation matches the weekly rotation matches the monthly rotation matches the performance on the year and so to sort of just just you know unpack that a little bit you know today today we've got a rally that's a counter trend you know we had a little bit

a few sectors in counter trend rally mode and those have been the jump that's down the biggest on the year solar airlines and retail.

You know also today we saw the rally a rally in oil services semiconductors though so that energy sector as strong as could be and semiconductors are just a retracement rally.

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